April 20, 2024

Stocks and Bonds: Trading Year Starts Off With a Rally

Wall Street stocks ushered in the first day of trading in the new year with a strong rally as investors were buoyed by a report that showed manufacturing strength in the American economy.

Historically, equities have often traded higher in the opening days of the new year. But after opening with a strong bounce Tuesday, stocks gave back some of their early gains as investors remained skeptical about the strength of the economy and saw a cloudy outlook for the euro zone.

“People are skittish. They’re saying, ‘Show me, show me, show me. Prove it to me, prove it to me, prove it to me,’ ” said Robert Doll, chief equity strategist for fundamental equities at asset-management firm BlackRock.

The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index gained 1.55 percent, or 19.46 points, to close at 1,277.06, after climbing to 1,284.62 in the morning.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 1.67 percent, or 43.57 points, to 2,648.72, and the Dow Jones industrial average increased 1.47 percent, or 179.82 points, to 12,397.38.

Meanwhile, oil prices shot up on growing concerns that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to oil tankers if new sanctions are adopted by Western nations. The tensions in the region caused oil prices to jump $4.13, to $102.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In stocks, financial firms led the charge higher. Shares of Bank of America, which was one of the worst-performing stocks last year, had one of the biggest moves, rising 4.32 percent, to $5.80. JPMorgan Chase shares climbed 5.2 percent, to $34.98, and Citigroup’s stock jumped 7.68 percent, to $28.33.

Some analysts attributed the early optimism in the day to a new report on manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, said its manufacturing index rose to 53.9 points in December from 52.7 in November. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

Despite the stronger tenor of the report, other analysts remained cautious about drawing broader conclusions.

“The investor base got badly burned this time last year when many who were pessimistic in late 2010 switched to being optimistic in early 2011,” said Cary Leahey, senior economist at Decision Economics.

Investors raised their forecasts for economic growth and “upped their expectations of corporate earnings — and equity performance peaked in the second quarter and growth turned out to be about half of what people had hoped,” Mr. Leahey said.

Joseph Saluzzi, a co-head of trading at Themis Trading, said it was too early to say investors had a new, buoyant resolve. Fairly low trading volumes early in the day did not indicate to him that a flood of sidelined cash was moving into the markets.

“Nothing is really going to change until you start to see some real hard economic numbers that show growth. We’ve seen these sort of inklings before and they haven’t led to much in the past,” Mr. Saluzzi said.

More economic data will be released later in the week, perhaps providing investors with a bit of additional clarity on the strength of the economy late last year. Major retailers are scheduled to release sales data, which will provide a gauge of consumer spending during the holiday season.

And on Friday, the government reports the closely watched employment figures for December. The early consensus in the market was that the economy generated 150,000 jobs during the month. But even if true, some analysts said the market’s reaction could be muted.

“The market is primed for a good report by recent standards, but it will be a mediocre report by historical standards,” said Mr. Leahey.

Forecasts for much of the euro zone this year appear more bleak.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany warned on New Year’s Eve that “next year will no doubt be more difficult than 2011,” as austerity measures across much of Europe put economic growth at risk.

Mr. Doll of BlackRock said most investors believe Europe is going to have a shallow recession and that, should it occur, would not lead to significant fallout for the United States economy.

“But things will be different if somebody can convince us that Europe is going to fall apart or we see the bankruptcy of a major bank there,” he said. “Then that’s not economic contagion, which we could thwart, but financial contagion, which would be much more difficult to deal with.”

Earlier Tuesday, Asian stocks rose. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, on its first trading session of 2012, jumped 2.4 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea rose 2.69 percent. Markets in Japan and mainland China remained closed for the extended New Year’s holiday.

The Treasury’s 10-year note fell 23/32, to 100 13/32, and its yield rose to 1.96 percent, from 1.88 percent late Friday.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=9d6867a2d23baa42b10f2c07cd88c4f5

Stocks and Bonds: Wall Street Ends Flat, After a Lift From JPMorgan

In recent days, the market has struggled amid weaker commodity prices, Middle East turmoil and bleak news from Japan.

But on Wednesday, the indexes started the day higher after JPMorgan Chase reported that its quarterly profit surged 67 percent even as problems continued in its mortgage lending business.

Also, the Commerce Department said that retail sales in March increased 0.4 percent, but most of the increase could be attributed to higher gas prices.

Still, economists were cautious about the retail sales figures. When adjusted for inflation, the numbers were barely rising and could even be decelerating, Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist for Mizuho Securities USA, wrote in a research note.

Analysts are also concerned that the recent spike in energy prices, which has translated into an average $3.80 for a gallon of regular gasoline, will mean that consumers have little left for other spending.

The jump in oil prices continued as the May contract for crude oil rose 86 cents, to settle at $107.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

“Retail numbers are pretty telling right now,” said William B. Smith, the president of Smith Asset Management. “I think it is something you have to watch carefully to see what is going to happen with the effect of energy prices on consumers. It leads to other questions: where are we in the recovery?”

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 7.41 points, or 0.06 percent, to 12,270.99, and the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index rose 0.25 of a point, to 1,314.41. The Nasdaq composite index increased 16.73 points, or 0.61 percent, to 2,761.52.

The financial sector closed lower. Shares of JPMorgan fell 39 cents, or 0.84 percent, to $46.25. Goldman Sachs shed 25 cents, or 0.16 percent, to $160.17. Citigroup fell 5 cents,. or 1.10 percent, to $4.50, and Bank of America lost 20 cents, or 1.48 percent, to $13.27. Wells Fargo was down 72 cents, or 2.29 percent, to $30.68.

Separately, the Federal Reserve said in a monthly report that the economy generally continued to improve from the beginning of March to April 4, saying consumers spending picked up modestly.

“The whole market has started to get the shakes about how strong economic growth is truly going to be,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist for Key Private Bank. “Consumers still seem to be heavily pressed.”

The Treasury’s 10-year note rose 9/32, to 101 12/32. The yield fell to 3.46 percent, from 3.49 percent late Tuesday.

Eric Dash contributed reporting.

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Stocks & Bonds: Shares Slip as Oil Prices Jump on Libya Tensions

Crude prices have surged as the fighting in Libya, an OPEC member, has appeared to turn into stalemate, analysts said.

“What you really have is fear and the unknown running ahead of the facts,” said Mark  Routt, a senior staff consultant with KBC Advanced Technologies, a consulting firm.

On Friday, crude oil for May delivery rose $2.49, or 2.3 percent, to $112.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude jumped $3.98, or 3.2 percent, to $126.65.

A weaker dollar also kept prices elevated, and energy shares on Wall Street closed higher. But the biggest driver of oil prices was a growing perception among traders that the conflict in Libya might not end any time soon, KBC said in an energy outlook.

Blake Hutchinson, an oil field services analyst at Howard Weil, said that the markets had “written off” Libyan production. Reports of damage to oil fields have heightened fears that output could be disrupted for longer than initially forecast, possibly for years.

“When you kill an oil field, sometimes you kill it for good,” Mr. Hutchinson said. “You have gone from production offline” to production that might never exist again.

Mr. Routt of KBC said that “until we get a technical assessment of the damage, we are not going to know what the impact is going to be, and until we get that knowledge the markets are running ahead of themselves.”

Since the beginning of the turmoil in Libya, Saudi Arabia, along with its gulf neighbors, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, have raised production to offset the loss of Libyan oil exports.

But the increase has done nothing to dampen oil prices, the KBC analysis said, because traders are worried about the political stability of many Middle Eastern states, which are among the largest producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Stock prices closed moderately lower on Friday as investors monitored energy and currency markets.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 29.44 points, or 0.24 percent, at 12,380.05, while the broader Standard Poor’s 500-stock index lost 5.34 points, or 0.40 percent, to 1,328.17. The Nasdaq composite index declined 15.72 points, or 0.56 percent, to 2,780.42.

The Dow was little changed on the week, while the S. P. and the Nasdaq were slightly lower.

Energy shares bucked the market trend to close higher.

The oil drilling company Nabors Industries rose $1.06, or 3.48 percent, to close at $31.56. A rival, Helmerich Payne, gained $1.44, or 2.13 percent, to $68.94, and Anadarko Petroleum was up $1.37, or 1.64 percent, to $84.71.

Amid a threatened government shutdown in the United States, the dollar weakened. The euro rose to $1.4435 from $1.4297 on Thursday.

Interest rates were higher. The Treasury’s benchmark 10-year note fell 9/32, to 100 12/32, and the yield rose to 3.58 percent from 3.55 percent on Thursday.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/09/business/09markets.html?partner=rss&emc=rss