March 29, 2024

Food and Gasoline Drove Consumer Prices Higher in September

The report, from the Labor Department, showed that the overall Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent last month compared with a 0.4 percent increase in August. Gasoline prices rose at a faster pace, while the increase in food prices slowed.

The core C.P.I., which strips out such volatile categories, increased 0.1 percent in September, its smallest rise since March, compared with 0.2 percent in August. It was kept in check by some of its crucial components, like rents, which rose moderately, and automobiles, which did not rise at all. Apparel, used cars and recreation declined.

The report, which reflects seasonally adjusted figures, showed that inflationary pressures had been largely contained despite a rise in wholesale prices. And some commodity prices are expected to moderate in the months ahead as lower energy costs start to filter through the data, according to Russell Price, a senior economist with Ameriprise Financial.

“That is the lagging impact of petroleum prices,” he said.

The overall consumer index was 3.9 percent in the 12 months through September compared with 3.8 percent in August. Gasoline rose 2.9 percent in September, compared with 1.9 percent the month before. Food prices were up 0.4 percent, compared with 0.5 percent in August.

In the 12 months through September, the core index was up 2 percent, the same rate as in the 12-month period through August.

“The core prices are starting to show that they are easing,” said Chris Christopher, the United States economist for IHS Global Insight. “So hopefully, for consumers in particular, prices will start moderating significantly.”

The report also showed that the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers increased 4.4 percent over the last 12 months. That measure is used as a basis, in the third quarter, for cost of living adjustments in Social Security payments. The government said on Wednesday that those monthly benefits would increase 3.6 percent starting in January, the first adjustment since 2009.

Mr. Christopher noted that actual net checks to retirees would probably not rise that percentage amount because of increases in Medicare premiums.

“At least it is mitigating,” he said.

Government reports released on Wednesday also provided a glimpse of other areas of the economy, including the job market and the housing market, which continues to be challenged by financial pressures on households and a large supply of homes.

The Federal Reserve said in its beige book, a survey of regional economic conditions, that overall economic activity was expanding, according to information collected through Oct. 7, although many of its 12 districts described growth as modest or slight.

The beige book reported limited demand for new employees. Some districts noted difficulties finding skilled workers or said hiring had been hampered by an uncertain outlook for business or lower expectations for growth.

Residential construction remained at low levels, it said, particularly for single-family homes, while there was a moderate increase in the building of multifamily dwellings. In contrast, the report said, rental demand continued to rise.

Those observations were consistent with government statistics showing that housing starts, which reflect the commitment of builders and suggest that consumer spending on durable goods could follow, were up 15 percent, mostly for multiple family units. But there was no significant increase in the trend for the start of construction on single-family units.

“This is consistent with reports that home builder confidence remains severely depressed,” Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, said in a research note.

Celia Chen, a senior director at Moody’s Analytics, said uncertainty about jobs and problems with foreclosures have affected the single-family housing market. Home values have fallen, and it is still difficult for many people to get a mortgage.

“Many of the households forming right now are just not going to have the wherewithal to purchase a home,” Ms. Chen said.

“The ownership market faces many headwinds,” she added. “All the strength we are seeing is on the multifamily side.”

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Economix Blog: Weekend Business Podcast: Steve Jobs, Unemployment and Patriotic Spending

The death of Steve Jobs has set off a global outpouring of tributes rarely seen for a business figure. What made him so special?

John Markoff and Steve Lohr, two veteran reporters, covered him for many years, and both knew him well. In the new Weekend Business podcast, they describe him as singularly passionate and focused, a leader who demanded dedication from those around him and would not tolerate mediocrity. He thought of himself as a “technology leader,” says Mr. Markoff, who wrote Mr. Jobs’s obituary for The Times. While Mr. Jobs was not a computer programmer or a designer in the formal sense, he was superb in guiding others and in imagining and shaping projects, Mr. Lohr says, elaborating on arguments he makes in a column in Sunday Business.

The unemployment rate remained at 9.1 percent in September, according to the Labor Department report on Friday, with too few jobs produced to budge that rate, as Motoko Rich says in a separate conversation in the podcast. The Economic Cycle Research Institute is forecasting a new recession, the focus of my Strategies column in Sunday Business, but Ms. Rich says that the latest jobs report suggests that while the economy is weak, it’s not contracting at the moment.

Richard Thaler, the University of Chicago economist, says fear and anxiety have caused many corporations and individuals to hold back on spending. He advocates “self-interested patriotism,” that is, carefully planned spending on labor-intensive projects by businesses and people who can afford to do so. Mr. Thaler elaborates on this approach in the Economic View column in Sunday Business.

And David Gillen and David Segal discuss the filming of food commercials, the subject of Mr. Segal’s cover article in Sunday Business.

You can find specific segments of the podcast at these junctures: Steve Lohr and John Markoff on Steve Jobs (31:12); news headlines and Motoko Rich on unemployment (20:57); David Segal on food commercials (14:57); Richard Thaler (6:54); the week ahead (1:20).

You can download the program by subscribing from The New York Times’s podcast page or directly from iTunes.

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Bucks Blog: Delay in New Rules for Retirement Account Advisers

After receiving much criticism from the financial services industry and lawmakers, the Labor Department said Monday that it would rethink a proposed new rule requiring more investment professionals to take responsibility for the advice they provide to investors in retirement plans, including 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts.

“This extra time will enable us to strengthen the protections we already proposed and to do it in a way that is more straightforward and more clear,” said Phyllis Borzi, assistant secretary of the Employee Benefits Security Administration, who held a conference call with reporters on Monday. “There was a lot of misinformation about what our rule did and intended to do.”

The agency is trying to amend a 35-year-old rule, part of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, known as Erisa, which defines when investment advisers become a fiduciary — that is, professionals who put their clients’ interests before their own. Under the current regulations, a person is deemed a fiduciary only if he or she meets a five-part test.

One part of the test states that the person must provide the advice on a regular basis. So if an employer with a 401(k) hires an adviser on a one-time basis for advice, the adviser doesn’t have to act as a fiduciary. The same goes for workers who are nearing retirement and thinking about purchasing an annuity with their I.R.A. or 401(k) savings, Ms. Borzi noted in her testimony before the House Committee on Education and the Workforce in July.

“The narrowness of the existing regulation opened the door to serious problems, and changes in the market since the regulation was issued in 1975 have allowed these problems to proliferate and intensify,” she said in her testimony, which also noted that 401(k) plans did not yet exist and I.R.A.’s had just been authorized when the rule was written.

The department’s original proposal broadened the definition of who is deemed a fiduciary. But critics of the proposal said that they were concerned because fiduciaries who operate under Erisa rules are subject to more onerous restrictions than other advisers who also act as fiduciaries.

“It was a very broad rule that lacked a great deal of definition and clarity that we believe had a number of unintended consequences,” said Ken Bentsen, executive vice president of public policy and advocacy at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a trade group. He said that one of the industry’s concerns, for instance, was that brokerages would not be able to charge commissions on investments in I.R.A.’s. There were also concerns that brokers would be prohibited from engaging in principal trading, which occurs when a broker-dealer sells a customer securities from its own inventory.

“We believe the Labor Department has made the right decision by announcing they will re-propose their fiduciary definition rule change,” he added.

While many agree that the rule is well-intentioned, Democrats and Republicans in Congress, along with consumer advocates, had urged the Labor Department to reconsider the rule.

Ms. Borzi said during the call on Monday that her team had met with all of the stakeholders, including members of Congress, the financial services industry and consumer advocates. “Despite the fact that we’ve heard different things from different people, there is broad consensus that investment advisers should not be able to put their financial interests ahead of the people they serve,” she said.

She added that the new proposed rule — which could come as soon as January — would address the various concerns. The department is also coordinating with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is working on a fiduciary standard of its own as part of the Wall Street regulatory overhaul, so that the two sets of rules don’t conflict.

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Economix Blog: Home Prices Are Down, but Rentals Are Rising

The housing market is gasping for air, and home prices are down to 2003 levels, according to the SP/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

But that does not mean all housing is cheap. Rents are actually rising, according to the latest inflation data from the Labor Department. Last year, rents were essentially flat, but they have been rising steadily since the end of 2010. In August, rents paid for primary residences were up 0.4 percent compared with July, and 2 percent above a year earlier.

Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global InsightIndex of rents paid for primary residences using 1982-1984 as a base.

The reason is simply a matter of increasing demand for rental properties. In a better economy, the people who are now renting might be looking to buy a house. Many people do not have the financial capacity to get a mortgage. Interest rates are at historic lows, but lenders are making prospective borrowers go through ever more hoops to qualify for loans. People who are insecure about their jobs do not want to commit to mortgages, and those who are scraping by on unemployment insurance or savings certainly cannot buy a house.

“A lot of people are really changing their attitudes toward housing,” said Chris G. Christopher Jr.,
senior principal economist at HIS Global Insight. “So there is more renting going on.” With prices down, he said, housing “doesn’t seem like a very good investment.”

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Inflation Slowed in August, Reflecting a Weak Economy

The rate of inflation in the United States slowed slightly in August, when a rise in food prices was tempered by easing prices for gasoline and automobiles, according to government statistics released on Thursday.

The Labor Department said that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent last month, a slight deceleration compared with the 0.5 percent rise in July.

The index, although it reflects just one month of data, is one of a number of closely watched indicators that guide economists and financial market analysts assessing the state of the economy. Other economic reports released on Thursday showed weakness in the jobs market and an uncertain outlook for manufacturing.

“The story is very much the same: that economic growth is slow,” said Kurt J. Rankin, economist for PNC, about Thursday’s data. “But because consumer confidence and business sentiment are both weak and remain weak, positive but slow growth is edging toward stagnation.”

The inflation figures for August reflected the volatility in prices for items such as food and energy. Prices for gasoline moderated, with a 1.9 percent rise in August after a 4.7 percent jump in July. Food prices rose 0.5 percent compared with 0.4 percent in July.

When those components were stripped from the index, the core C.P.I. showed that prices rose in August at the same rate as in July, 0.2 percent. That was in line with analysts’ forecasts in a survey compiled by Bloomberg News.

On a year-over-year basis, the core C.P.I. was up 2 percent in August compared with 1.8 percent in July.

Paul Ballew, a former Federal Reserve economist and now chief economist at Nationwide, said that the August C.P.I. number was consistent with expectations, such as with automobile prices, which were basically flat in August.

“Those pockets of weakness were in areas already expected and known,” he said.

Of more importance to investors were events in the European debt crisis and speculation as to what Federal Reserve policy makers would say after a meeting next week, Mr. Ballew said. Although the chairman of the Fed, Ben S. Bernanke, has given no sign that there would be fresh stimulus measures, market watchers were anticipating any measures that would help promote the economic recovery in the United States, especially in the critical sectors of jobs and housing.

Mr. Rankin said that the year-over-year core C.P.I. was 2 percent, bumping up against the Fed’s target rate.

“Initially Bernanke’s goal has been to prevent deflation,” Mr. Rankin said. But the central bank cannot raise rates, he added, because it would slow economic activity.

In addition, the latest figures show that inflation is set to outpace wage growth, which would be a “significant blow” to potential economic growth because 70 percent of the economy is based on consumer spending, Mr. Rankin said.

“Even those with jobs are not able to put that money back into the economy in a way that would create jobs,” he said. “Now we are getting to the point with this inflation number, even those with jobs are less capable of driving economic activity.”

A weekly report from the Labor Department on Thursday suggested that the labor sector was continuing to struggle. For the second consecutive week, initial claims for jobless benefits rose, increasing by 11,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 to 428,000. That was up from the previous week’s 417,000, which was revised up from 414,000.

Economists generally take any level over 400,000 as a continued sign of weakness in the labor market.

Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR Inc., said in a research note that the latest claims figures were another indication that there was “little or no upward impetus” to net gains in payroll employment.

In addition, the Federal Reserve reported on Thursday that industrial production increased 0.2 percent in August after having advanced 0.9 percent in July.

Total industrial production for August was 3.4 percent above its year-earlier level, the Fed added.

Manufacturing, an important component in the data that economists looked to for its role in jobs and the economic recovery, rose 0.5 percent, the Federal Reserve report said.

Cliff Waldman , an economist for the Manufacturers Alliance, said that the August report on industrial production showed that the United States manufacturing sector was at a crossroads, with a rebound from the Japanese earthquake on one side against a slowdown in global economic activity on the other.

Despite sold gains in aerospace and furniture output, for example, there were signs that manufacturing was starting to feel the brunt of a sharp United States economic slowdown, Mr. Waldman said.

“The most likely near-term course for the U.S. manufacturing sector is positive but slowing growth,” he said in a statement responding to the Fed report. “However, with the U.S. economy at a near standstill and world growth slowing quickly, a dimmer outlook for U.S. factories cannot be ruled out.”

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Prices for Imports to U.S. Fall Again

Prices of goods imported into the United States fell in August for the second time in three months as the cost of oil and food dropped, while autos stabilized, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

The department said the import-price index fell 0.4 percent. The decline followed a 0.3 percent increase in July. Economists projected a 0.8 percent decrease, according to the median of 52 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices excluding fuel rose 0.2 percent.

Slower growth in Europe and emerging economies like China, together with less demand in the United States, may restrain the cost of goods from abroad. Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, said last week that “transitory” influences that had pushed up some prices would wane, and that the central bank had tools to spur growth if necessary.

Compared with a year earlier, import prices rose 13 percent, the report showed, down from a revised 13.8 percent increase in the 12 months ended in July.

The cost of imported petroleum fell 2.1 percent from the prior month and was up 44 percent from a year earlier.

Import prices excluding all fuels increased 5.3 percent from August 2010, after rising 5.4 percent in the year that ended in July.

Imported food was 0.8 percent less expensive last month. The cost of imported automobiles was little changed, which may reflect the easing of supply constraints after the disaster in Japan.

Consumer goods excluding vehicles showed a 0.3 percent gain and were up 2 percent over the last 12 months, the biggest year-over-year increase since November 2008. Costs for clothing made overseas climbed 1.2 percent last month.

United States export prices increased 0.5 percent after declining 0.4 percent the previous month, the report showed. Prices of farm exports increased 2.2 percent, while those of nonfarm goods climbed 0.3 percent.

The price of consumer goods shipped overseas excluding autos climbed 5.9 percent over the last 12 months, the biggest gain since the records began in 1983.

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Obama Administration Abandons Plan to Tighten Air-Quality Rules

The president rejected a proposed rule from the Environmental Protection Agency that would have significantly reduced emissions of smog-causing chemicals, saying that it would impose too severe a burden on industry and local governments at a time of economic distress.

Business groups and Republicans in Congress had complained that meeting the new standard, which governs emissions of so-called ground-level ozone, would cost billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The White House announcement came barely an hour after another weak jobs report from the Labor Department and in the midst of an intensifying political debate over the impact of federal regulations on job creation that is already a major focus of the presidential campaign.

The president is planning a major address next week on new measures to stimulate employment. Republicans in Congress and on the campaign trail have harshly criticized a number of the administration’s environmental and health regulations, which they say are depressing hiring and forcing the export of jobs.

The E.P.A., following the recommendation of its scientific advisers, had proposed lowering the so-called ozone standard of 75 parts per billion, set at the end of the Bush administration, to a stricter standard of 60 to 70 parts per billion. The change would have thrown hundreds of American counties out of compliance with the Clean Air Act and required a major enforcement effort by state and local officials, as well as new emissions controls at industries across the country.

The administration will try to follow the more lenient Bush administration standard set in 2008 until a scheduled reconsideration of acceptable pollution limits in 2013. Environmental advocates vowed on Friday to challenge that standard in court, saying it is too weak to protect public health adequately.

Ozone, when combined with other compounds to form smog, contributes to a variety of ailments, including heart problems, asthma and other lung disorders.

Lisa P. Jackson, the E.P.A. administrator, has pushed hard for a tougher ozone standard, telling associates that it was one of the most important regulatory initiatives she would handle during her tenure. But she found herself on the losing end of a fight with top White House economic and political advisers, who were persuaded by industry arguments that the 2008 ozone rule was due to be reviewed in two years anyway and who were concerned about the impact on state, local and tribal governments that would bear much of the burden of compliance.

The impact would have been felt heavily in a band of Midwest and Great Plains states that are not themselves major sources of ozone pollution and that will be critical 2012 electoral battlegrounds.

In a statement, the president reiterated his commitment to environmental concerns, but added: “At the same time, I have continued to underscore the importance of reducing regulatory burdens and regulatory uncertainty, particularly as our economy continues to recover. With that in mind, and after careful consideration, I have requested that Administrator Jackson withdraw the draft Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards at this time.”

In words of reassurance directed at Ms. Jackson and the agency she heads, the president said that his commitment to the work of the agency was “unwavering.”

“And my administration will continue to vigorously oppose efforts to weaken E.P.A.’s authority under the Clean Air Act or dismantle the progress we have made,” he said.

Ms. Jackson accepted the White House decision with a terse statement: “We will revisit the ozone standard, in compliance with the Clean Air Act.”

She pointed with pride to the administration’s record of establishing a range of other air quality safeguards for power plants, manufacturing facilities and vehicles that will also help to reduce ozone pollution across the country.

Ms. Jackson had made clear her intention to follow her scientific advisers and set a new standard within the more restrictive range by the end of this year. She has told associates that her success in addressing this problem would be a reflection of her ability to perform her job. The agency sent the now-rejected standards to the White House in July with the expectation that they would be issued by Aug. 31.

Leslie Kaufman contributed reporting from New York.

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Economix Blog: Jobs Report Preview

On Friday morning, the Labor Department will release its first estimate for the number of jobs created in the United States in August, and right now expectations are low.

CATHERINE RAMPELL

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

Wall Street analysts have a median forecast of just a 60,000 net gain in nonfarm payroll jobs, about half of the gain from July. The unemployment rate — which comes from a different survey, and reflects the share of people who want work and are actively looking for it but can’t find a job — is expected to remain 9.1 percent.

To put this in perspective, the United States generally needs to add about 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with the growth in the working-age population.

These are among the factors that economists are citing for their weak forecasts:

  1. The latest consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board showed a sharp drop in perceptions of job availability, back to the lowest level since 2009.
  2. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management showed a decline in manufacturing hiring.
  3. Layoff announcements have been higher in the last two months than they were earlier this year, according to a recent Challenger, Gray Christmas.
  4. The recent strike by 45,000 Verizon workers occurred during the week that the Labor Department collects data on employment, and so that may be reflected in the employment and unemployment numbers.
  5. Layoffs by state and local governments are continuing.

Even if the numbers come in just as expected, economists will be scouring the report for any signs of what lies ahead.

Here are some details to keep an eye on:

  1. What’s happening to the length of the workweek? The workweek has averaged 34.3 hours for the two previous months. Economists are expecting it to remain unchanged in August. A slight change, though, would give a sense of whether employers are thinking of expanding or shrinking their staffs, since they usually change hours before making the bigger commitment to hire or fire.
  2. How much are average hourly earnings changing? The consensus forecast is that wages will rise 0.2 percent, after having risen 0.4 percent in July. Wage fluctuations can be important for consumer spending, which drives the economy. Recent surveys have found that consumers have very low expectations for income increases in the next few months.
  3. Finally, are more people dropping out of the work force? The share of working-age Americans who are either working or looking for work has been dropping to record lows. In July, this labor force participation rate was just 63.9 percent, the lowest share since 1984, when there were many fewer women in the work force. Some of the recent decline in the participation rate reflects the retirement of boomers, but it also means many workers are just giving up. This is a bad sign for the future health of the economy, especially if giving up on looking for work now means giving up forever, which it does for many older workers.

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Payrolls Increased in 31 States in July

Employers in New York increased their staffs by 29,400 workers, while those in Texas added 29,300, figures from the Labor Department showed Friday. Joblessness increased by 0.4 percentage point in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and South Carolina. Nevada continued to lead the nation in unemployment with a rate of 12.9 percent.

Widespread job growth is needed to shore up incomes after spending among consumers ground to a halt in the second quarter. That raised concern that the world’s largest economy was stalling. A Labor Department report on Aug. 5 showed employers added 117,000 workers to payrolls last month and the jobless rate fell to 9.1 percent.

“The overall labor market was doing better than previous months, but the bigger point is that it’s a lot weaker than earlier in the year,” Paul Dales, senior United States economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, said before the report. “That’s a concern given that any data from July won’t reflect the market turmoil in the last couple of weeks that really could have prompted some businesses to postpone or cancel any hiring plans.”

After Nevada, the jobless rate was highest in California at 12 percent, and Michigan and South Carolina, both at 10.9 percent.

Payrolls in Michigan rose 23,000 and Tennessee gained by 14,300. They rounded out the top four states showing the biggest increase.

The biggest job losses last month occurred in Illinois, where employers cut payrolls by 24,900, and in Florida, which had a 22,100 decrease.

Over the last 12 months, six states lost jobs, including Indiana, Nevada, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia and Delaware.

The jobless rate in North Dakota, the lowest in the United States, increased to 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent in June.

While payroll growth picked up in July, employment prospects for Americans have dimmed compared with earlier in the year. Employers added 216,000 workers from May to July, compared with 646,000 in the previous three-month period.

The risk of a recession has risen to 30 percent from 14 percent in July, according to the median of the 39 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. A sell-off in stocks, government fiscal austerity and a lack of jobs will hurt American growth, which slowed to a 0.9 percent pace in the first half of 2011, the economists said.

State and local employment data are derived independently from the national statistics, which are typically released on the first Friday of every month. The state figures are subject to larger sampling errors because they come from smaller surveys, making the national figures more reliable, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Productivity Falls for 2nd Quarter in a Row

The measure of employee output per hour fell at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter after a revised 0.6 percent drop in the previous three months, figures from the Labor Department showed Tuesday. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was a 0.9 percent decrease. Expenses per employee rose 2.2 percent.

With higher labor costs, “profitability will come under pressure,” said Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities in New York, who had forecast a decline in productivity. “This would create more caution in expanding payrolls, especially at a time when there is so much uncertainty.”

Economists’ productivity forecasts in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a decrease of 2 percent to a 2.2 percent gain. Efficiency in the first quarter was previously reported as having increased 1.8 percent.

The back-to-back drop in productivity was the first since the third and fourth quarters of 2008.

Unit labor costs, which are adjusted for efficiency gains, were projected to rise 2.4 percent. Labor expenses in the first quarter were revised to 4.8 percent, the biggest gain since the fourth quarter of 2008, from a previously reported 0.7 percent advance.

From the second quarter of 2010, productivity rose 0.8 percent compared with a 1.2 percent year-over-year increase in the first quarter. Labor costs rose 1.3 percent from the year-earlier period after a 1.1 percent increase in the 12 months ended in the first quarter.

The productivity report incorporated revisions to previous years. Worker efficiency growth was revised to 4.1 percent in 2010 from a previously reported 3.9 percent. For 2009, it was revised to 2.3 percent from 3.7 percent.

Labor costs fell 2 percent in 2010, the biggest decline since records began in 1948.

A lack of productivity gains, combined with stagnant growth, may slow hiring and wages, hurting Americans’ living standards. Employment grew by 117,000 in July and the jobless rate fell to 9.1 percent, the Labor Department reported last week.

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