April 18, 2024

Markets Falter After Chinese Central Bank Statement

HONG KONG — In its first direct comment about a credit crunch last week that raised concerns about the health of the Chinese financial system, China’s central bank insisted Monday that there was ample cash in the banking system but stressed that the country’s commercial banks needed to be better managed.

Bank-to-bank lending rates, which had hit record highs last week, further eased Monday. But stocks slumped sharply in a sign that markets remained intensely nervous about China’s growth prospects and the uncertainties that surround the Chinese leadership’s efforts to reshape the economy.

The Shanghai composite index, which has been under pressure for months amid mounting evidence that the Chinese economy is cooling, plunged 5.3 percent, its biggest single-day drop in nearly four years, taking its decline so far this year to more than 13 percent. The Shenzhen composite index dropped 6.1 percent, while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.2 percent, sagging below the 20,000-point mark for the first time since last September.

Markets in Europe were down almost 2 percent in afternoon trading, while Wall Street shares were down 1 percent shortly after the opening.

Numerous analysts have revised downward their growth projections — HSBC, for example, cut its forecast for this year to 7.4 percent from 8.2 percent — amid signs that Beijing’s new leaders are willing to tolerate slower growth in the short term as they pursue stability for the long term.

The interbank lending market’s benchmark overnight rate, which serves as a gauge of liquidity in the financial market, stood at 6.489 percent Monday. That was down from 8.492 percent Friday and well below the record high of 13.44 percent it hit Thursday, but still elevated compared with the level of about 3 percent of most of the past 18 months.

In a statement dated June 17 but published Monday, the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China, addressed some of the concerns about the cash crunch, saying that “currently, liquidity in our country’s banking system is overall at a reasonable level.” But, in a stern sign to Chinese lenders, it called on financial institutions to improve “awareness about preventing risks” and to “strengthen their analysis and forecasting about factors affecting liquidity.”

“Follow the requirements of macro prudence in allocating assets in a sensible fashion,” the central bank’s instructions to lenders went on, “and cautiously control the risks that the excessively rapid expansion of credit and other assets may lead to liquidity risks. When there is turbulence in market liquidity, swiftly adjust the structure of assets.”

The fact that the People’s Bank of China had allowed interbank lending rates to soar last week — rather than injected money into the financial system — was widely interpreted as a deliberate effort to rein in excessive lending and force banks to focus on prudent, low-risk loans.

A buildup of debt by local governments, property developers and state-owned companies, while useful for supporting economic growth, bears substantial risk, including asset price bubbles and potentially destabilizing defaults if loans turn sour, analysts have cautioned. The rapid expansion of lending in unregulated and often opaque shadow banking activities, in particular, has worried many.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund cautioned that the growth in credit “raises concerns about the quality of investment and its impact on repayment capacity, especially since a fast-growing share of credit is flowing through less-well supervised parts of the financial system.”

Beijing has responded in recent months with efforts to address the potential risks. “Policy makers have taken measures to slow the rapid growth in credit and at the same time tightened rules about irregular and imprudent activity in the financial system, including interbank bond repo transactions,” economists at JPMorgan in Hong Kong wrote in a research note Friday, referring to bond repurchases. That “tough-line attitude,” they added, had caused the recent increase in interbank funding costs.

Although factors like a seasonal demand for liquidity and a crackdown on cash hoarding at banks also contributed to the rate increase, the JPMorgan team wrote, it seemed that the P.B.O.C. also “wants to use this as an opportunity to address” banks’ expectations that it is always there to provide backup.

Yiping Huang and Jian Chang, China economists at Barclays, said in a report that with “China’s credit-to-G.D.P. ratio at 200 percent, we believe that the P.B.O.C. is acting in line with the government’s efforts to deleverage, rebalance and position the economy towards a path for sustainable growth.” Though the central bank is likely to stabilize the interbank market in the near term, they added, “short-term rates are likely to remain elevated, at least for a while, possibly leading to the failing of some smaller financial institutions.”

Louis Kuijs, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland and former China economist at the World Bank, said conditions in the interbank market were likely to remain “tight and nervous” in the coming weeks.

“We expect conditions on the interbank market to normalize gradually after that,” Mr. Kuijs added.

Chris Buckley contributed reporting.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/25/business/global/chinese-central-bank-says-liquidity-at-reasonable-level.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Asian Stock Markets Continue Downward March

Global stock markets have been taking a beating for months now amid fears that an outright debt default by Greece would undermine the European banking system, and as the third quarter ended on Friday, many major indexes had recorded their worst quarterly drops since the financial crisis in 2008.

Monday brought yet more declines.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index, which fell 21.5 percent during the last quarter, started the new quarter with a 4.5 percent drop by midafternoon.

In Taiwan, the Taiex ended 2.9 percent lower, and the key index in Australia shed 2.8 percent.

European markets, too, looked set to fall steeply at the open.

The markets in mainland China and Korea were closed for holidays.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index closed 1.8 percent lower despite news that confidence among larger manufacturers had improved somewhat during the third quarter as the country continued its recovery from the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck on March 11.

The Tankan, a quarterly survey that is conducted by the Bank of Japan and is closely watched as a barometer of the Japanese economy’s heath, rose to plus-2 in September, from minus-9 in June.

But the index remained below the pre-quake level, and large companies said they planned to increase capital spending by just 3 percent during the current financial year — less than economists had expected.

The capital expenditure plans show “that the global financial gloom is definitely hurting business confidence in Japan,” Takuji Okubo, an economist at Société Générale in Japan, said in a research note.

The yen’s persistent strength is another factor restraining capital expenditures, he added. The yen has firmed from around 83 per U.S. dollar in January to just above 77 yen on Monday, a troubling development for Japanese exporters, as it has made their goods more expensive for overseas consumers.

The euro, by contrast, has been undermined by the European debt woes. The currency was hovering at around $1.3325 in Asian trading — its lowest level since January — down from $1.3387 at the New York close on Friday.

European finance ministers are due to meet later on Monday, and a succession of other international meetings are planned in coming weeks as policy makers try to stem the crisis.

Greece acknowledged over the weekend that it would miss its deficit-reduction target despite desperate action to slim down its bloated public sector, which also hurt market sentiment on Monday.

The Greek government is in a race against time to convince representatives of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, known as the troika, that it will make good on pledges to put its financial house in order. Without the release of about €8 billion, or $11 billion, in aid — part of a €110 billion bailout agreement — Greece could run out of money this month and face a default that would shake the euro zone and global markets.

The decision on whether to release the cash is expected to be made on Oct. 13 at an extraordinary meeting of European finance ministers, but it will depend on the troika officials, currently in Athens, issuing a positive report about Greece’s efforts at fiscal overhaul. A chief source of frustration for foreign auditors has been the delays in carrying out reforms and an apparent reluctance by the government to reduce the country’s public payroll.

Niki Kitsantonis contributed reporting from Athens.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/business/global/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Asian Markets Gloomy on U.S. Jobs Data

The U.S. jobs data, released on Friday, showed that the U.S. economy had added no jobs at all in August, a hugely disappointing figure that renewed worries that the economy may be heading for a recession.

Wall Street reacted with a decline of 2.2 percent on the Dow Jones industrial average and a 2.5 percent fall on the Standard Poor’s 500. The benchmark indexes in several leading European markets slumped more than 3 percent Friday.

The stock markets in Asia followed suit on Monday. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index sagged 1.7 percent by the lunchtime break in Tokyo.

Exporters like Sony, Panasonic and Sharp, which derive a large part of their earnings from sales in the United States and Europe, fell more than 3 percent.

South Korea and Singapore tumbled 2.5 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.

The S. P./ASX 200 in Australia and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong retreated 2.1 percent. In mainland China, the Shanghai composite index slipped 1.1 percent, and in Taiwan, the Taiex dropped 2.5 percent.

S. P. 500 futures were 0.5 percent lower by midmorning in Asia. The U.S. market is closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Gold, which tends to rise in times of uncertainty, was hovering at around $1,880 an ounce, having risen sharply in U.S. trading on Friday.

Adding to investor jitters were fresh worries about the euro zone’s ability to cohesively respond to its debt crisis, after talks between Greece and its foreign creditors were put on hold Friday and the head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, warned Italy to stick to its austerity program.

The euro slipped to $1.417 by late morning in Asia, its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in about three weeks.

“Financial markets continue to be stressed about the lack of growth drivers in the global economy,” analysts at DBS said in a research report on Monday. They noted that at present the United States appeared to be the only major economy with an agenda to get fiscal and monetary policies together to support the weak U.S. jobs market.

“Against this background, members at the G-7 meeting on Sept. 9-10 will have a challenging task to restore confidence in the ability of the advanced economies to support growth and jobs, as well as to restore financial stability,” the DBS analysts wrote. “Hence, risk appetite is likely to be low in markets as long as the advanced economies are seen on the defensive on the growth front.”

Matthew Saltmarsh contributed reporting from London.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/business/asian-markets-gloomy-on-us-jobs-data.html?partner=rss&emc=rss