April 23, 2024

Media Decoder Blog: Digital Notes: the Scorecard on Social Media’s Grammy Predictions

5:19 p.m. | Updated Like any major awards show, the Grammys inspire no shortage of clairvoyants who claim to know how the Recording Academy’s fickle (yet conservative) voters think. They are often wrong, of course. One example: Two years ago virtually every expert was sure that Eminem would sweep the major categories; he won none of them.

Digital Notes

Daily updates on the business of digital music.

The social media age has brought lots of new indicators of potential Grammy success, and this year Shazam, Spotify and Mashable, among others, made guesses based on user data and online chatter. But did these fare better than the human experts this year?

Not much, perhaps because, as Grammy watchers frequently point out, the industry insiders who vote on the prizes are not always aligned with popular — or critical — tastes.

In the four major award categories — album, record and song of the year, and best new artist — the most successful crowd-sourced prediction was by Shazam, the song-identifying app, which looked to how many times songs were “tagged” on the service. Its choices were correct three times: Fun., for song (“We Are Young”) and best new artist, and Gotye’s “Somebody That I Used to Know” for record of the year. (Record of the year is for a single’s performers and producers; song of the year is for songwriters.)

But Shazam was off the mark with album of the year. It favored Fun.’s “Some Nights” by a huge lead, but the prize went to Mumford Sons’ “Babel”   — a distant fourth on Shazam’s list. (In other categories, like rock song, rap song, and gospel, Shazam was also on target.)

Spotify looked to the number of streams on its service for clues, and also had mixed success. It was right about Gotye for record of the year (and also for best pop duo or group performance), as well as Mumford Sons for best album. But it was wrong in guessing the Lumineers for best new artist. (Spotify made no prediction for song of the year.)

Mashable looked at data about social networks data from Activ8Social, a marketing agency, and guessed right on half the major spots. Like Spotify, it was right about album and record of the year. For best new artist, however, the social Web gave Mashable mixed signals. Frank Ocean was the clear favorite on Twitter, but Facebook gave an edge to Fun., which took the prize. For song of the year, YouTube indicated a wide lead for Carly Rae Jepsen’s “Call Me Maybe,” but Fun. took that one as well.

How did these compare to the expert handicaps? About even. Billboard was two for four in the major categories: correct on album and song of the year, but incorrect on record and best new artist. Grammy wins, it would seem, are beyond even the wisdom of crowds.

Pricing Change at eMusic: One of the oldest digital music services, eMusic has survived more than a decade as a subscription download service, offering songs at lower prices than its competitors, but only to customers who pay a monthly fee. The service announced on Monday that it is dropping the subscription requirement, and selling songs to anyone who will pay for them.

“Although our focus on this audience hasn’t changed, our new business model is more inclusive and invites everyone to engage with what eMusic offers,” Adam Klein, eMusic’s chief executive, said in a statement.

EMusic, which opened in 1998 and started its subscription service in 2000, has struggled to remain competitive in the current market. It was once one of the few services to sell downloads without copying restrictions, but those have been largely dropped by other retailers. And in addition to longtime competition from iTunes, eMusic has also faced new download stores from Amazon and Google as well as a new generation of popular streaming services like Spotify.


Ben Sisario writes about the music industry. Follow @sisario on Twitter.

Article source: http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/11/digital-notes-the-scorecard-on-social-medias-grammy-predictions/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Preoccupations: How Evidence-Based Management Pays Off

You go through the procedure, which doesn’t work. You later find the research your doctor failed to consult. When you ask why, she answers: “Who pays attention to studies? I have years of clinical experience. Besides, the protocol seemed as if it ought to work.”

Does that sound like malpractice? It does to us. Fortunately, pressures to practice evidence-based medicine are reducing preventable errors.

That isn’t the case, however, in most workplaces, where failure to consider sound evidence repeatedly inflicts unnecessary damage on employee well-being and group performance. It doesn’t have to be that way.

Consider the issue of incentive pay. Many people believe that paying for performance will work in virtually any organization, so it is used again and again to solve problems — even where evidence shows it is ineffective.

Recently, New York City decided to end a teacher bonus program after three years and $56 million. As The New York Times reported in July, a study found that the effort to link incentive pay to student performance “had no positive effect on either student performance or teachers’ attitudes.”

But that bad news could have been predicted long before spending all that time and money. After all, the failure of similar efforts to improve school performance has been documented for decades.

Here is another example: Research has shown that stable membership is a hallmark of effective work teams. People with more experience, working together, typically communicate and coordinate more effectively.

Although this effect is seen in studies of everything from product development teams to airplane cockpit crews, managers often can’t resist the temptation to rotate people in and out to minimize costs and make scheduling easier.

For example, the National Transportation Safety Board once found that 73 percent of the safety incidents reported on commercial aircraft occur on the first day a new crew flies together.

Hiring is another crucial workplace decision. Many studies show that unstructured, face-to-face interviews are biased; interviewers prefer candidates who are likeable, similar to them, and physically attractive — even if these qualities are irrelevant to performance.

Many other selection methods are superior. Among the best is simply to determine whether the candidate can perform the work. Still, interviews remain the primary route to hiring.

Another workplace danger is excessive self-confidence, which can help people rise to positions of power but can also render them less effective leaders. Overconfident decision-makers may acknowledge that they use a practice that is ineffective for most others — but they believe they are so talented that the usual findings don’t apply to them.

Fortunately, some organizations are moving toward evidence-based management. A recent study at Google shows the power of accepting and acting on evidence, even when it clashes with ingrained beliefs. For most of its history, Google’s leaders believed that deep technical expertise was the most important quality in a manager. They thought that the best bosses pretty much left their people alone, and that their main role was to help with technical problems when people got stuck.

Yet when Google examined what employees valued most in a manager, technical expertise ranked last among eight qualities. Deemed more crucial were attributes like staying even-keeled, asking good questions, taking time to meet with people and caring about employees’ careers and lives.

Google found that managers who did these things led top-performing teams and had the happiest employees and least turnover. So Google is making many changes in how it selects and coaches managers, devoting particular effort to improving its worst managers.

We applaud Google’s leaders for overcoming their biases. But note that the attributes of great managers were evident in hundreds of previous studies, so such improvement efforts might have started years earlier.

IN medicine, the evidence-based movement arose in response to thousands of deaths and billions of wasted dollars that could have been averted by applying proven practices.

Similarly, in other fields, the growing pile of studies on the human and financial costs of employee disengagement, management distrust, poor group dynamics, faulty incentive schemes and other preventable damage suggests a need for an evidence-based management movement. Some organizations are leading the way. It’s time for many more to follow suit.  

Jeffrey Pfeffer and Robert Sutton are professors at Stanford and authors of “Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths, and Total Nonsense: Profiting from Evidence-Based Management.” E-mail: preoccupations@nytimes.com.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=1d37c447855a823a9d832b3385f8bbc9