O.K., that is an exaggeration. But analysts and executives at media agencies who are studying the schedules announced during upfront week in New York see patterns amid the many shows the broadcasters will introduce in hopes of finding the big hits that have eluded them recently.
The 2012-13 season, which is about to end, “was so lackluster,” said Marc Berman, editor in chief of TV Media Insights. “Nothing broke out, and the networks realized they needed to step up to the plate.”
As a result, “the networks are being more aggressive,” Mr. Berman said, particularly with scripted shows, “the meat and potatoes of any schedule.” Of the 26 series to be introduced in September or October, Mr. Berman counted only one reality series, Fox’s “Junior Masterchef,” (which has already earned a nickname, “Kids With Knives”).
Including the series the networks have on the bench as midseason replacements, the number of new shows climbs to 52.
“I’m still trying to absorb it all,” said Steve Kalb, senior vice president for video investments at the MediaHub division of Mullen in Boston, part of the Interpublic Group of Companies.
Still, he spotted a trend of “more family-centric sitcoms, with a twist here and there,” in the vein of “Modern Family,” the popular ABC series that was picked up for a fifth season and will begin in reruns this fall on the USA Network cable channel.
Among those shows, he listed “Back in the Game,” “The Goldbergs” and “Trophy Wife” on ABC; “The Crazy Ones,” “The Millers” and “Mom” on CBS; “Dads” on Fox; and “Welcome to the Family,” “Sean Saves the World” and “The Michael J. Fox Show” on NBC.
David Campanelli, senior vice president and director for national television at Horizon Media in New York, described “The Goldbergs,” set in the 1980s, as “having a ‘Modern Family’ meets ‘The Wonder Years’ feel to it” and praised it as “the most promising” of the new comedies.
But in its period of 9 p.m. on Tuesday, “The Goldbergs” will face formidable competition, he added, from returning series: “NCIS: Los Angeles” on CBS, “New Girl” on Fox and “The Voice” results show on NBC.
After looking at the premises of the new sitcoms, Ed Martin, television columnist for MediaPost, said he found that “an awful lot of them are about parents moving in with kids and kids moving in with parents.”
“I don’t know how appealing that’s going to be,” he added.
But he described himself as “really intrigued” by the family sitcom “The Michael J. Fox Show” because Mr. Fox will play a television reporter and father who, like Mr. Fox in real life, has Parkinson’s disease.
“Barriers are broken in television when characters you don’t normally see in lead roles are put into lead roles and have a little fun with themselves,” Mr. Martin said. “That will make or break the show, if you think he is having fun.”
Another trend for 2013-14, involving dramas, echoes the last couple of seasons. “There are so many vampires and monsters and aliens and kids with supernatural powers,” Mr. Martin said. “It all felt very familiar, like I’d seen it before, and I had.”
Among those new series are “Once Upon a Time in Wonderland” and “Resurrection” on ABC; “The Originals,” “The Tomorrow People,” “The 100” and “Star-Crossed” on CW; “Almost Human” and “Sleepy Hollow” on Fox; and “Dracula” on NBC.
A new ABC series set in a comic-book universe, “Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.,” is the drama “that looked the most exciting to me,” Mr. Martin said, partly because it is based on the hit movie “The Avengers.”
Shari Anne Brill, chief of Shari Anne Brill Media, was also dismayed by what she called “the usual crop of dark, supernatural shows with monsters, mayhem and magic.” Those “derivative” series may have a chance to stand out, she said, if they play up “underlying themes of power, betrayal, greed and revenge.”
After upfront week, a guessing game always begins: Which new shows will be among the first to be canceled? In the 2012-13 season, that dubious distinction went to “Made in Jersey” on CBS.
“I don’t see anything along the lines of ‘Animal Practice,’ ” Ms. Brill said, citing a widely derided sitcom from the 2012-13 season that NBC canceled in November. She said she was unsure about the staying power of newcomers like “Trophy Wife.”
Mr. Martin, too, said he had little hope for “Trophy Wife” and doubted the prospects for “Sleepy Hollow” and “Lucky 7,” a drama on ABC.
Mr. Campanelli said he believed that a midseason replacement at Fox, “Gang Related,” may not see prime time because it “looked like an unnecessarily uber-violent show.”
Mr. Kalb, who called his record of predicting early cancellations “so bad every year that I have to leave it up to the American people,” wondered about “Reign,” a drama on CW about Mary, Queen of Scots, because it differs greatly from the network’s typical fare.
Although viewers may not go for “a period piece taking ‘90210’ to a new century,” he said, it could work if it is perceived as “the same good-looking people, just in different costumes.”
Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/business/media/a-season-of-families-vampires-and-aliens.html?partner=rss&emc=rss