April 16, 2024

Economic Growth Revised Higher in 3rd Quarter, to 3.1%

WASHINGTON — The United States economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter as exports and government spending provided a lift, the Commerce Department said on Thursday in its third estimate of the data.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.1 percent annual rate, up from the 2.7 percent pace reported last month. That jump is likely to be lost amid slowing global demand and a move toward tighter fiscal policy, economists say.

It was the fastest growth since late 2011 and also reflected a slightly better pace of consumer spending than previously estimated.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected G.D.P. growth would be raised to a 2.8 percent pace. Exports grew at a 1.9 percent rate, rather than 1.1 percent.

Separately, the Labor Department said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid rose 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 361,000 last week, suggesting job growth remains moderate.

The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 13,750 to 367,750, the lowest since late October. The data covered the survey period for December nonfarm payrolls.

In the G.D.P. report, government spending was revised to a 3.9 percent growth rate from 3.5 percent, bolstered by a rebound in state and local government outlays. It added three quarters of a percentage point to growth in the third quarter.

The increase from exports is likely to be short-lived against the backdrop of a cooling global economy. Government spending is likely to be a drag in the coming quarters amid belt tightening to trim the budget deficits.

About $600 billion in automatic government spending cuts and higher taxes could be pulled out of the economy in early 2013, which could tip the country back into recession, unless an agreement is reached on a less-punitive plan.

While growth in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of American economic activity, was raised in Thursday’s revision by 0.2 percentage points to a 1.6 percent rate, that mostly reflected higher health care costs.

Business inventories were trimmed to $60.3 billion from $61.3 billion. Restocking by businesses contributed 0.73 percentage point to G.D.P. growth.

Given the sluggish spending pace, some of the inventory accumulation might have been unplanned, suggesting businesses will need to liquidate stocks this quarter because of weak demand.

Excluding inventories, G.D.P. rose at a revised 2.4 percent rate. Final sales of goods and services produced in the United States had been previously estimated to have increased at a 1.9 percent pace.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/21/business/economy/economy-grew-3-1-in-3rd-quarter-according-to-revision.html?partner=rss&emc=rss