November 23, 2024

Economix: Author’s Plea for More Trial and Error

Book Chat

Tim Harford is a columnist for The Financial Times and the author of “The Undercover Economist.” He’s part of the growing cadre of journalists who try to write about economics in plain English. His new book, “Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure,” will be published this week. Our conversation follows.

Tim Harford, author of Fran MonksTim Harford, author of “Adapt.”

Q. You briefly tell a story about the chef Jamie Oliver. He persuaded schools in one part of London to change their lunch menus to reduce fat, sugar and salt and to increase the number of fruits and vegetables. When two economists studied the children later, they found less illness and somewhat better school performance. That’s incredible. How much confidence should we have that the change in the menus caused the health and academic changes?

Mr. Harford: What really grabbed my attention about this incident was not, “Healthy meals help kids concentrate in school” – it was, “Wow, it takes a campaign by a TV chef to find out something like this.”

The research was carefully done by serious economists, but we could have more confidence in their findings if the project to improve school meals had been designed as an experiment. It wasn’t; it was designed for a TV show. After it started, Tony Blair, the British prime minister at the time, was falling over himself to endorse it. Yet it was a simple idea that Blair’s government could have tested out years before.

One of the main ideas of the book is that the world is full of interesting ideas that might help solve some of our big problems, but nobody really knows which of these ideas will work and which will fail. So policy makers, corporate leaders and social campaigners need to be much more open to all sorts of formal and informal experiments. Jamie Oliver created an accidental experiment. It would be nice if we spent a bit more energy doing this deliberately.

Q. You’re saying, in essence, that society doesn’t do enough trial and error. What are some of the areas that could benefit most obviously and immediately from trial and error?

Farrar, Straus Giroux

Mr. Harford: I look at lots of different examples — military strategy; climate change policy; development aid; education and social policy at home; and support for innovation .

I think our system for promoting innovation, which is funded by a combination of government grants and private enterprise, struggles with large and adventurous projects, such as clean energy. The private sector is terrific at producing lots of experiments (just think of Silicon Valley) but not at funding expensive, long-term projects. Government grants can do that but are often rather risk-averse. One promising approach to get the best of both is innovation prizes. Another is to use a far more risk-loving system of grants.

In Iraq, we had a failing strategy and leaders who refused to listen to feedback from the men on the front line. It took a near rebellion from some brave colonels in Iraq to change the strategy. The U.S. military now seems to recognize that a successful post-Cold-War campaign is going to require the soldiers on the ground to improvise a lot more.

Of course we can’t simply say, “Let’s experiment more,” because there are areas of the economy where experiments can go off the rails — credit derivatives, anyone?

Q. Innovation is an especially important subject, because it has such a big effect on economic growth and living standards. And there is reason to worry that the pace of innovation has slowed in recent years.

How would you recommend that the United States change its policies intended to promote innovation? You’re based in London, so I realize you may want to talk about what some other countries are doing well — if, in fact, there are any shining examples.

Mr. Harford: Here’s the challenge: by its very nature, innovation requires a lot of exploration and a lot of blind alleys. Government agencies don’t tend to be comfortable with that, so the private sector often makes the running. Even when an idea was initially government funded — the Internet is a classic example — it’s taken the private sector to explore its potential.

But I’m not happy to leave this to the private sector alone, because modern innovations tend to require ever more money, larger teams and more specialists. The age of the lone inventor is long gone, and in important cases — for instance, a smart energy grid, or nuclear fusion — the private sector just doesn’t have the money or the patience to pay for progress.

So this is fundamentally an organizational problem: how to harness the diversity of the private sector with the long-term funding of the public sector?

I see two promising approaches. One is to earmark more government research grants for high-risk projects. A fascinating research paper compares conservative medical research grants from the National Institutes of Health with more speculative grants from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. The Hughes approach produces more failures but many more “big hits.” Clearly, there’s a balance to be struck.

A second approach is the use of innovation prizes. These have received increasing attention but there’s potential to put up far larger prizes — multibillion-dollar affairs.

Q. Who is a hero of adaption — someone who managed to change an organization that had been terrified of failure?

Mr. Harford: There are several inspiring characters in the book, but I’d pick out Gen. H.R. McMaster, who in the spring of 2005 was a colonel in charge of operations near the Iraqi city of Tal Afar. He developed a new approach to fighting insurgents. It was successfully copied by other colonels and became an important inspiration for the “surge” of 2007.

What makes General McMaster’s initiative amazing is that he had to shrug off every link in the chain of command above him. Remember that in 2005 Donald Rumsfeld didn’t even want to hear the word “insurgent,” so this was a career-threatening move, Many observers commented on the fact that he was repeatedly passed over for promotion.

I wanted to explore why he did it. Partly it was his academic background: McMaster was a historian who wrote a blistering account of the failures of leadership during the Vietnam War. And it was also his personal experience. McMaster captained a troop of tanks during the first Gulf war and won a celebrated victory — the Battle of 73 Easting — against Saddam Hussein’s Republican Guard. Rather than resting on his laurels, McMaster argued that this battle — a total surprise, in a sandstorm, with no air cover — showed that the traditional satellite-guided air war had serious limitations. He argued that junior commanders on the ground would often be the ones called upon to adapt to local circumstances, and the military command structure had to acknowledge that.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=54ce136617e739c74100d671290d169e

April Job Data Is Strong, but Some Doubt Trend Can Last

The Labor Department said Friday that 244,000 jobs were added last month after a gain of a revised 221,000 in March. The unemployment rate rose to 9 percent in April from 8.8 percent in March.

“There are yellow warning flags that are popping up,” Joshua Shapiro, the chief United States economist for MFR Inc. “It remains to be seen whether this nascent recovery we are seeing is going to peter out or not.”

As has been the case for several months, all of the increase came from private employers, which added another 268,000 jobs last month, after a revised gain of 231,000 in March, the report said. Results of the previous two months were revised to show another 46,000 jobs were added.

Governments, struggling to balance budgets as they dealt with shrinking revenues and growing deficits, cut 24,000 jobs last month. Most of the drop came at the local level, where 14,000 jobs were lost in April after a decline of 15,000 in March.

April’s numbers exceeded the forecasts of analysts, who had expected a gain of 185,000 jobs over all, with the change in private payrolls of 200,000. The rise in the unemployment rate that came even as employers were adding jobs was an indication that more people were entering the work force as hopes for hiring increased.

While better than expected, Friday’s employment numbers showed that the national economy still had a long way to go to fully recover. Though down from its peak of 10.1 percent in late 2009, April’s unemployment rate reflects only those Americans who are still actively looking for work.

As such, economists said the April jobs report was part of a larger picture of the economy that remained mixed. The rise in the unemployment rate reflects the survey of households, which indicated a 190,000 decline in employment in April. And recent data on initial jobless claims and other employment indicators have been weak.

“Millions of people are unemployed and many have left the labor market and given up,” Mr. Shapiro said. “Against that we are maybe creating 244,000 jobs. That is all well and good but it just shows you how much further we have to go to make a dent into what has happened in the labor market.”

“It gets the basic debate out there about the economy,” he added. “Is all we have seen the product of government stimulus, and are all the problems coming back or not?”

Austan Goolsbee, chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, noted that the economy had added 2.1 million private sector jobs in the last 14 months, including more than 800,000 this year. The last three months of private jobs gains have been the strongest in five years, he said, despite the “headwinds” from higher energy prices and the Japan disaster.

President Obama, speaking in Indianapolis, said the report showed that the economy “can take a hit and still keep on going.”

Mr. Goolsbee added a note of caution. “While the solid pace of employment growth in recent months is encouraging, faster growth is needed to replace the jobs lost in the downturn,” he said.

The latest snapshot covered a period when several indicators pointed to signs of weakness. The American economy grew at a tepid 1.8 percent in the first quarter, according to the government’s estimate for the first quarter. Personal consumption has slowed and construction remains weak, though winter weather was cited as a reason.

Turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has sent crude oil prices higher, pushing up the cost of gasoline, which in turn has taken a larger share of the money consumers have to spend. Supply disruptions in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan have rippled through American industries, especially the automobile sector where plants have reduced production and idled workers.

John Canally, economist for LPL Financial, said that there was a marked difference between the April report of last year, when the economy was hurt by uncertainty over the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the European debt crisis.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/07/business/economy/07jobs.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix: A Fresh Look at Fighting Global Poverty

Book Chat

Dean Karlan, a Yale economist, and Jacob Appel, a former field researcher in West Africa, are the authors of a new book about fighting global poverty, “More Than Good Intentions.” Richard Thaler has described the book on the Nudge blog, and Tyler Cowen has called Mr. Karlan “one of my favorite young economists.”

Dutton

I quoted Mr. Karlan in a New York Times Magazine article about economics experiments, and I explained his general approach to economics in a column about some of his colleagues.

My conversation with Mr. Karlan and Mr. Appel follows.

Q. You write that microcredit — small loans to poor people — “has generated more enthusiasm and support than perhaps any other development tool in history.” You agree that microcredit has great potential, but you also suggest that it’s been oversold. What’s known at this point about how it does, and does not, improve people’s lives?

Mr. Karlan: Rigorous evidence about the impacts of microcredit on borrowers’ lives is just beginning to roll in, and the picture for donors is mixed. The three major randomized evaluations of microcredit conducted thus far have not found it to be a universal remedy for poverty, as some advocates claim — but we have observed positive some impacts, at least for some people.

The first major revelation is that, in practice, microcredit often looks and feels very different from the standard story proponents tell: a poor, enterprising woman takes a loan, grows a tiny business into a small- or medium-sized enterprise, and lifts her family out of poverty.

Some of the most positive impacts found yet, in an evaluation conducted in South Africa, actually came from microloans made to employed individuals rather than microentrepreneurs, and at very high interest rates. I have found that most microcredit professionals hate this result, since this version of microcredit bears little resemblance to the traditional version that people are asked to support with donations. But this worker-focused version of microcredit does seem promising.

In this instance, it increased income and reduced poverty. It worked by helping borrowers weather bad times, for example by fixing a broken vehicle needed for work, or by sending money to a sick relative in a rural area instead of leaving work to tend to the relative.

Q. I imagine many people who work in this area believe their own microcredit program is more successful than the ones you and other researchers have evaluated. And they probably have some reasons for believing so. What would you say to them?

Dean Karlan, co-author of Michael Marsland Dean Karlan, co-author of “More Than Good Intentions.”

Mr. Karlan: Yes, a common retort we hear from advocates is that we have simply evaluated the wrong microcredit programs. We have two responses to this: first, many important features do appear fairly similar across microlenders, although we certainly agree programs are not entirely uniform. Second — let’s evaluate what you think is the special sauce.

Some studies under way now are doing just that, trying to evaluate programs that incorporate business training and health training, for instance. We will see in due time whether these distinctive program features really translate into impact.

A final point I believe is key: many investors, not donors, are pouring their money into large microcredit institutions. Indeed, many microcredit organizations are making a fair amount of profit. Given the positive, albeit not overwhelming, impacts found, I encourage investors to invest in microcredit. But they should be aware their investments, while helpful, are not about to solve poverty. Their rhetoric, too, needs to be toned down a bit. This is not the “bottom of the pyramid” solution to solve world poverty.

And I encourage donors to seek out either ideas proven to be more effective, or to support alternative models of microlending accompanied by rigorous evaluations so that we can find the approach that is most worthy of donor money.

Q. What are those ideas — the ones that so far have been proven more effective?

Jacob Appel, co-author of Adam Zucker Jacob Appel, co-author of “More Than Good Intentions.”

Mr. Appel: There are a few that stand out. In the area of finance, microsavings, a less-celebrated financial instrument for the poor, is emerging as a powerful tool. Specifically, commitment savings accounts, which allow savers to (voluntarily) restrict access to their deposits until they reach a time or balance goal, have stood up to rigorous testing. For example, in the Philippines we saw savings increase by 80 percent for everyone offered such an account, and we saw women gain more power in the household as a result of getting access to their own commitment savings accounts.

In education, there are two powerful ideas. First, deworming — this one is practically a no-brainer. In communities that suffer from intestinal parasites, providing free deworming medication at schools for about 50 cents per student per year can reduce absence rates by about a quarter (not to mention the health benefits from eradicating the worms!), and also lead to higher income later in life.

Second, remedial education to help struggling students: getting kids into schools is a start, but sometimes student achievement stagnates despite increased attendance.

The caveat here is that, with hundreds of rigorous evaluations going on now around the world, we are still learning. Of course, action needs to be taken; we can’t just sit back and wait for all the research to be completed. Dean’s group, Innovations for Poverty Action, just started a fund that keeps zero overhead or administrative charges and passes on 100 percent of all donations received to projects implementing proven ideas. Another source of good ideas is Givewell, a group that uses research and organizational assessments to make recommendations about which groups can most effectively use donations.

Q. You also write about programs that give money to people in exchange for certain behavior, like enrolling a child in school. Oportunidades, in Mexico, was the pioneer here. They’ve also shown to work in many settings. What about in the United States — have any worked here? Could they?

Mr. Appel: Yes, conditional cash transfer programs like Mexico’s Oportunidades have indeed been tried here in the U.S., with some success. A notable example is a series of education-oriented programs evaluated by Harvard economist Roland Fryer in the past few years. These offered cash incentives to students for achievements at school, like $50 for getting an A on a test, or $2 for reading a book.

The results were mixed. The findings suggest that incentives for behaviors students control immediately and directly (like showing up or paying attention in class) work better than incentives for outcomes that the students influence but do not control directly (like test grades). Happily, the process of modifying and rigorously testing these programs is ongoing.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=24acd5095b7436e40f6bfd448cacb4fe

Economix: Beer Drinking and China’s Economy

The average Chinese adult drank about a third of a bottle of beer in 1961, less than the average resident of Iran. By 1991, consumption topped a bottle a year, but still lagged behind 117 other nations, according to the World Health Organization.

By 2007, the Chinese were drinking almost a six pack a year. While that’s still considerably less per capita than in beer gardens like the Czech Republic (where the average adult drinks about 24 beers a year) it’s enough to make China by far the world’s largest market for beer.

That story can be repeated for any number of consumer goods, of course. But what’s interesting about beer is that the trend is not likely to last. A paper by two economists at the University of Leuven, in beer-loving Belgium, finds that people drink more beer as their incomes rise, until they make about $22,000 a year.

Then they start drinking less beer.

The paper, brought to my attention by the Reuters blogger Felix Salmon, doesn’t offer much in the way of explanations, but perhaps the most obvious one is something many Americans personally experience in their 20s. As you start making more money, and assuming more responsibility, there is less opportunity to drink -– and the potential consequences become more costly.

People also start drinking more wine.

The paper notes that patterns of alcohol consumption are converging, diminishing the long-standing, much-caricatured division of Europe into a wine-drinking south and a beer-drinking north. (The history of these divisions is well-told in the delightful book “A History of the World In Six Glasses.”)

“Increased openness to trade and globalization has contributed to a convergence in alcohol consumption patterns across countries,” write the authors, Liesbeth Colen and Johan Swinnen. Wine drinking increased in places like Germany and Belgium, while beer drinking spiked in Greece and Spain. (France, however, is sitting out the trend.)

This suggests, notes Mr. Salmon, that the Chinese inevitably will start drinking more wine. Much the same thing appears to be happening in Brazil, Russia and other emerging markets. But not in India, where the major religions frown on drinking alcohol, and neither beer nor wine is heavily consumed.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=bf640c3d5f614bcfa46eb16dfefd501c

Icelanders Again Reject Icesave Debt Deal

Policymakers have said a ‘no’ in the Saturday referendum meant the dispute will end up in a European court. Economists have said the uncertainty is hurting efforts to drag Iceland out of recession, end currency controls and boost investment.

“The worst option was chosen. The vote has split the nation in two,” Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir told state television, saying it was fairly clear the ‘no’ side had won.

State television said almost 60 percent of voters had rejected the agreement, based on results from five out of six voting districts, including the capital Reykjavik.

Many voters were against taxpayers footing the bill for irresponsible bankers. Just over 169,000 votes had been counted out of the 230,000 eligible voters.

Iceland’s prime minister, who has predicted a ‘no’ vote would cause economic uncertainty for at least a year or two, did not say whether the government planned to resign.

“We must do all we can to prevent political and economic chaos as a result of this outcome,” she said.

The debt was incurred when Britain and the Netherlands compensated their nationals who lost savings in online “Icesave” accounts owned by Landsbanki, one of three Icelandic banks that collapsed in late 2008.

Britain and the Netherlands both said they were disappointed by the vote.

“It is obviously disappointing that it seems that the people of Iceland have rejected what was a negotiated settlement,” Britain’s Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander told BBC television.

“Of course we respect the will of the Icelandic people in this matter and we are going to have to now go and talk to the international partners with whom we work, not least the government of the Netherlands. It now looks like this process will end up in the courts,” he said.

Sigurdardottir said Iceland would now defend its case before the court of the European trade body overseeing Iceland’s cooperation with the EU, the EFTA Surveillance Authority (ESA). Economists have said this route could be much costlier.

Economic Affairs Minister Arni Arnasson told the television he would be in touch next week with ESA, which said last year, in a first stage in legal proceedings, that Iceland should pay compensation to Icesave depositors.

ANGRY ICELANDERS

Icelandic lawmakers in February backed a repayment plan agreed with creditors, but the president refused to sign the bill, triggering the vote. In March 2010, Iceland rejected an earlier Icesave repayment blueprint in a referendum.

“I know this will probably hurt us internationally, but it is worth taking a stance,” Thorgerdun Asgeirsdottir, a 28-year-old barista, said after casting a “no” vote.

Svanhvit Ingibergs, 33, who works at a rest home, said: “I had no part in causing those debts, and I don’t want our children to risk having to pay them. It would be better to settle this in a court.”

Iceland is still pulling itself out of the recession which hit it after its bank crash, and policymakers and economists have said solving the Icesave issue would help the country get back into international financial markets.

Getting such funding is also part of a plan to end the controls on capital flows it imposed in 2008 to stabilize a tumbling currency.

“In our view it is unlikely that the capital controls will be fully lifted until the bulk of the Icesave debt is repaid, and the currency risk thus has been reduced,” Islandsbanki economist Jon Bentsson said.

The controls have left an estimated equivalent to a quarter of Iceland’s gross domestic product in the hands of foreign investors, many of whom are expected to want to pull out. Ratings agencies follow the vote closely. Moody’s has said it may lower its credit rating on Iceland in case of a ‘no’.

Standard Poor’s analyst Elieen Zhang said a ‘no’ vote “might possibly result in a lengthy legal process and further uncertainties regarding the ultimate fiscal cost.”

(Additional reporting by Sara Webb in Amsterdam and Avril Ormsby in London; Editing by Jon Hemming)

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/04/10/business/business-us-iceland-referendum.html?partner=rss&emc=rss