April 19, 2024

Economix Blog: Why the Minimum Wage Doesn’t Explain Stagnant Wages

Until the mid-1980s, only a single state – and one of the smallest in population, Alaska – had set a minimum wage higher than the federal minimum. But with the federal minimum remaining unchanged at $3.35 an hour for most of the 1980s, more states began to set higher floors for wages.

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A closer look at big issues facing the country in the 2012 Election.

Economy, Planet, Security, World and Health.

By the end of the 1980s, a dozen states had their own, higher minimum wage. By 2008, 32 states did. The number has fallen to 18 today, because the federal minimum has risen since 2008 – it’s now $7.25 an hour – and overtaken some state minimums, but the 18 include several large states. In Illinois, the minimum wage is $8.25. In California, it is $8. In Florida, it is $7.67.

As a result of these state minimum wages, the federal minimum is not as important as it once was. It applies to less than 60 percent of the population.

In this space, we have been examining the causes of the American income slowdown – over both the last decade and the last generation – and our recent list of 14 possible causes included the stagnation of the federal minimum wage. That stagnation certainly matters: in 1968, the minimum wage was 45 percent higher than it is today, adjusting for inflation.

But I think it’s fair to say that the minimum wage is not one of the most important causes of the income slowdown. The minimum wage instead belongs on a list of secondary causes. It probably did play a substantial role holding down the pay of low-income workers in the 1980s and in increasing inequality, as research by David S. Lee and others has found. But its role seems to have been much smaller in the last two decades.

I’ll confess that I did not expect to come to this conclusion. When we started this project, I assumed that the minimum wage would have played a larger role. If others think it has, we welcome hearing from them.

The crucial point is that the minimum wage has risen, even after adjusting for inflation, over the last 20 years. The reason it is so much lower now than in the late 1960s is that it declined so much from the late ’60s through the late ’80s.

The effective minimum wage today – a national average taking into account both the federal and state minimums – is about $7.55, which is more than 10 percent higher in inflation-adjusted terms than the effective minimum in 1990. Today’s effective minimum is also about 7 percent higher than in 2000.

Yet the overall pay of people at the bottom of the income ladder has been virtually unchanged since 1990, according to Census Bureau data. And pay at the bottom (as well as the middle) has fallen since 2000. The rising tide of the minimum wage, to use President John F. Kennedy’s formulation, has not kept most boats from falling.

Why doesn’t the federal minimum wage matter more than it does?

For all the economy’s problems, American society is still richer than it was a generation ago, with fewer low-wage workers. As a result, fewer are subject to the minimum wage than would have been the case in the past. The biggest changes have occurred among women.

In the 1970s, women made up the great majority of minimum-wage workers. But as women’s pay has risen, the share making the minimum wage has dropped sharply. Over all, about 5 percent of all hours worked in 2009 were paid the minimum wage or less (some businesses, like restaurants, are exempt). That was down from 8 percent of hours in 1979, according to research by David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Alan Manning of the London School of Economics and Christopher L. Smith of the Federal Reserve.

The decline is almost entirely the result of rising women’s wages. About 4 percent of men’s hours are paid at or below the minimum wage, down only slightly from 5 percent in 1979. For women, the decline was much bigger: to 6 percent, from 13 percent.

None of this is meant to suggest that the minimum wage is irrelevant. It affects not only minimum-wage workers but also those paid slightly more, who often receive raises when the minimum rises. If Congress increased the minimum wage to its inflation-adjusted 1968 level, a large number of poor people would receive a raise. Some would also lose their jobs, if their employers decided they could not profitably pay the higher wage. But research suggests that modest increases in the minimum wage do not have a large effect on employment.

All in all, a higher minimum wage would probably lead to a rise in pay for lower-income workers in general and a decline in inequality.
The 1980s help make that case in reverse. The federal minimum did not change from 1981 to 1990, causing its inflation-adjusted value to fall 30 percent during that time. Wages in the bottom of the income distribution fell sharply, even more sharply than they have in the last decade. The inflation-adjusted wage of a worker at the 20th percentile of the distribution dropped 9.5 percent from 1981 to 1990, according an analysis of government data in the forthcoming book “The State of Working America, 12th Edition,” by the Economic Policy Institute.

Mr. Lee, a Princeton economist, argues that the minimum wage accounted for “much of the rise” in inequality in the bottom part of the income distribution in the 1980s. David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, and John DiNardo of the University of Michigan have made a similar argument. Mr. Autor, Mr. Manning and Mr. Smith suggest the effect was smaller but agree it existed.

Since 1990, though, the minimum wage has risen. If you’re trying to understand why every income group except for the affluent has taken an income cut over the last decade, you probably shouldn’t put the minimum wage at the top of your list of causes.

In coming weeks, our look at other causes will continue.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/why-the-minimum-wage-doesnt-explain-stagnant-wages/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economic Scene: The German Example

Germany has been a frequent cudgel in recent fights over the American economy. When Germany has grown faster than the United States, stimulus skeptics like to point across the Atlantic Ocean and say that austerity works. When it has grown more slowly, people who think the American stimulus made a big difference — including me — return the favor.

But the full story is more interesting than any caricature. In the last decade, Germany has succeeded in some important ways that the United States has not. The lessons aren’t simply liberal or conservative. They are both.

With our economy weakening once again — and with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany visiting the White House this week — now seems to be a good time to take a closer look.

The brief story is that, despite its reputation for austerity, Germany has been far more willing than the United States to use the power of government to help its economy. Yet it has also been more ruthless about cutting wasteful parts of government.

The results are intriguing. After performing worse than the American economy for years, the Germany economy has grown faster since the middle of last decade. (It did better than our economy before the crisis and has endured the crisis about equally). Just as important, most Germans have fared much better than most Americans, because the bounty of their growth has not been concentrated among a small slice of the affluent.

Inflation-adjusted average hourly pay has risen almost 30 percent since 1985 in Germany, the kind of gains American workers have not enjoyed since the ’50s and ’60s. In this country, hourly pay has risen a scant 6 percent since 1985.

Germany also managed to avoid a housing bubble, unlike the United States, Britain, Ireland, Spain and other countries. German children have stronger math and science skills than ours. Its medium-term budget deficit is smaller. Its unemployment rate is like a mirror image of ours: 6.1 percent, well below where it was when the financial crisis began in 2007. Our rate has risen to 9.1 percent.

I’m not saying that the United States should want to become Germany. Americans remain considerably richer. We have the innovative companies — Wal-Mart, Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter — that make other countries swoon. We remain the world’s immigration Mecca.

Yet for all the strengths of the United States, almost nobody claims that the economy is in especially good shape. It so happens that our current out-of-town guests could teach us a few things.

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The first lesson is that it’s really possible to make government more efficient. Like much of Western Europe, Germany long had a unemployment benefits system that discouraged work. But almost a decade ago, it began to make some changes.

It cut many benefits, in both duration and level, and it reduced the incentives to retire early. It also began trying to move the long-term unemployed into the labor force.

Specifically, the government took a fresh look at people who had not worked in years to determine who could and couldn’t work. The able and healthy were matched with potential employers. If they took a low-paying job, which was often the case, they would still receive a small portion of their benefits for a time. If they refused to work, their benefits were reduced anyway.

“The incentives to take up work were strengthened,” says Felix Hüfner of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, “and also the sanctions were strengthened.” Sure enough, the reforms have nudged more people back into the labor force — and work tends to beget more work, as people develop skills and have more money to spend.

In the United States, short-term jobless benefits are not generous enough to be a major problem. But the Social Security disability program, which is one reason nearly 20 percent of working-age American men are not working, would benefit from some German-like reforms. So would those public sector pensions that encourage people to retire at 55 or 60.

Beyond the job market, Germany has also made a big effort to improve its education system. Eric Hanushek, a Stanford University economist, notes that Germany’s performance on the main international math, reading and science tests have become such a matter of national concern that the name of the tests — Pisa — is now a household word. “In the U.S.,” he says, “Pisa is still a bell tower in Italy.”

The math scores of German students have risen significantly since 2000, extending their existing lead over American students. Germany’s national average is now higher than the average in Massachusetts, this country’s top-performing state. And there is obviously a connection between strong technical skills and a strong manufacturing sector.

But the German story is not merely about making government more efficient. It’s also about understanding the unique role that government must play in a market economy.

That role starts with serious regulation. American regulators stood idle as the housing bubble inflated. German banks often required a down payment of 40 percent.

Unlike what happened here, German laws and regulators have also prevented the decimation of their labor unions. The clout of German unions, at individual companies and in the political system, is one reason the middle class there has fared decently in recent decades. In fact, middle-class pay has risen at roughly the same rate as top incomes.

The top 1 percent of German households earns about 11 percent of all income, virtually unchanged relative to 1970, according to recent estimates. In the United States, the top 1 percent makes more than 20 percent of all income, up from 9 percent in 1970. That’s right: only 40 years ago, Germany was more unequal than this country.

Finally, there are taxes. Germany does not have a smaller budget deficit because it spends less. Germany, you’ll recall, is the original welfare state. It has a smaller deficit because it is more willing to match the benefits it wants with the needed taxes. The current deficit-reduction plan includes about 60 percent spending cuts and 40 percent tax increases, Mr. Hüfner says. It’s like trying to lose weight by both eating less and exercising more.

As I suggested before, the American economy’s strengths may still be greater than the German economy’s. But Germany sure does seem more serious about dealing with its weaknesses.

And us? Well, lobbyists for the mortgage bankers and the N.A.A.C.P. have recently started pushing for less stringent standards for down payments. Wall Street is trying to water down other financial regulation, too.

Some Democrats say Social Security and Medicare must remain unchanged. Most Republicans refuse to consider returning tax rates even to their 1990s levels. Republican leaders also want to make deep cuts in the sort of antipoverty programs that have helped Germany withstand the recession even in the absence of big new stimulus legislation.

There is no getting around the fact that financial crises wreak terrible damage. It’s too late for us to prevent that damage, and it will take a long time to recover fully. It is not too late to learn from our mistakes.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=23df9bd56d09f42582a8fea5d853685e

Bucks: Tuesday Reading: A Closer Look At The Data On Cellphones And Cancer

June 07

Tuesday Reading: A Closer Look At The Data On Cellphones And Cancer

A closer look at data on cellphones and cancer, teens face greater crash risk in summer, Apple unveils cloud music and storage service and other consumer-focused news from The New York Times.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=cef91e193006713037de0add3ee212ee