April 25, 2024

Economix Blog: Simon Johnson: Last-Ditch Attempt to Derail Volcker Rule

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Simon Johnson is the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and co-author of “White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.”

In a desperate attempt to prevent implementation of the Volcker Rule, representatives of megabanks are resorting to some last-minute scare tactics. Specifically, they assert that the Volcker Rule, which is designed to reduce the risks that such banks can take, violates the international trade obligations of the United States and would offend other member nations of the Group of 20. This is false and should be brushed aside by the relevant authorities.

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

The Volcker Rule was adopted as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation in 2010. The legislative intent was, at the suggestion of Paul A. Volcker (the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors), to limit the kinds of risk-taking that very large banks could undertake. In particular, the banks are supposed to be severely limited in terms of the proprietary bets that they can make, to lower the probability they can ruin themselves and inflict great damage on the rest of society. (For a primer and great insights, see this commentary by Alexis Goldstein, a leader of Occupy the S.E.C.)

The Volcker Rule is almost finished winding its way through the regulatory process, and a version should be implemented soon. But in a last-ditch attempt to block it, the United States Chamber of Commerce has sent a letter to the United States Trade Representative asserting:

The Volcker Rule is discriminatory, as foreign sovereign debt is subject to the regulation, while Unted States Treasury debt instruments are exempt. This creates a discord in G20 and invites foreign governments to retaliate at a time when we need those same regulators in foreign countries to support initiatives to liberalize trade in financial services. Further, U.S.T.R. should conduct a very close examination to ensure the Volcker Rule does not violate any of our trade obligations.

This statement is correct with regard to the point that there are exemptions in the current version of the Volcker Rule for banks’ holdings of United States government debt, i.e., there are fewer restrictions on their holdings of Treasury obligations than on their holdings of foreign government debt.

But the idea that this violates the spirit or letter of our international obligations is flatly wrong. Perhaps that is why the letter doesn’t point to any particular provisions of any specific trade agreements.

As a matter of basic principle, there is no violation, because there is no provision in any trade agreement that says United States banking regulators can’t protect our financial system by engaging in prudent regulation. To the contrary, nations have always been allowed to restrict what their banks can regard as safe assets, and thus effectively to limit their holdings of foreign assets.

Think of it this way. Would we want United States banking regulators to be prohibited from distinguishing between United States debt and that of Greece, Ireland, Spain or Italy?

In practice, this distinction among countries already occurs. For example, the Basel II equity capital requirements allow every country to treat the debt of other governments with some caution (although, without doubt, more caution is needed than was actually used in the past, or even than is encouraged under the new Basel III agreement).

Some Canadian officials, for example, have said that Canadian government debt should receive equal treatment with United States government debt. This is a dangerous proposal. Canada has ridden the recent commodity price boom and, to many observers, its real estate looks pricey. Do Canadian banks have enough loss-absorbing capital to weather whatever storms lie ahead – if China slows down or energy prices fall for some other reason? They had trouble in the 1990s, when commodity prices fell sharply. Why should American regulators allow our banks to take on a huge amount of Canadian risk?

Markets love a country until five seconds before they hate it. Surely we should have learned that by now, including from the European crisis.

We should continue to regard euro-zone debt with great suspicion. The euro-zone sovereign debt crisis may be over, and Greece’s bond rating was upgraded sharply by Standard Poor’s this week. On the other hand, S.P. and other ratings agencies have been wrong – and to a spectacular degree – in the not-too-distant past, including being overly optimistic about European sovereign debt and residential mortgages in the United States.

The Volcker Rule, and its international counterparts, like “ring fencing,” are forms of re-regulation, to be sure. Based on harsh recent experiences, countries are backing away from letting their banks and other people’s banks run unfettered around the world, taking on whatever risks they like and getting themselves into complicated legal and financial difficulties.

We need to reduce excessive and irresponsible risk taking throughout our financial system. The Volcker Rule is a significant step in the right direction. It is time for the regulators to finish the job.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/20/last-ditch-attempt-to-derail-volcker-rule/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix: Will Business Buy In to Early Childhood Education?

Republicans are pushing to reduce many programs that provide for young children, such as the Kids Central Incorporated Head Start Center in Norton, Va., where Angel Hall helps a child.Shawn Poynter for The New York TimesRepublicans are pushing to cut funding for many programs that provide for young children, such as the Kids Central Incorporated Headstart Center in Norton, Va., where Angel Hall helped a child earlier in the year.
Today's Economist

Nancy Folbre is an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Economists disagree about a lot of things, but many agree that public investments in early childhood education pay off. The social benefits far exceed the social costs.

A recently released study of 1,000 poor children who benefited from Chicago’s Child-Parent Center Education Program (which includes intensive preschool, parent training and support for students through third grade), suggests that every dollar spent on the program yielded nearly $11 to society, including increased tax revenue and reduced spending on child welfare, special education and grade retention.

Many other detailed cost-benefit analyses, ably summarized in Timothy Bartik’s new book, “Investing in Kids,” document a high social rate of return, with the potential to encourage local economic development as well as improve productive skills.

Enthusiasm crosses the political spectrum. James Heckman of the University of Chicago, a Nobel laureate who is hardly a big advocate of government spending, is famously insistent on the benefits of early childhood education. Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, is another strong supporter.

Last year, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce published a report, “Why Business Should Support Early-Childhood Education,” that includes a summary of efforts by some chamber groups to promote early childhood education on the state and local level.

Such efforts go beyond charitable giving and on-site learning centers for employees with children to strong political commitments to expand our educational system significantly.

Public support could take many different forms, including the voucher-based systems advocated by two Federal Reserve economists, Arthur J. Rolnick and Rob Grunewald.

Why, then, hasn’t the business community thrown more of its political weight behind increased public support for early childhood education?

In the push to cut all social spending, both federal and state programs have gone on the chopping block. Republicans in the House of Representatives have mounted a major effort to reduce Head Start, Early Head Start and the Child Care Development Block Grant, as well as many other programs directed at young children.

State preschool spending per child declined last year to a level below that of 2001-2 and is likely to decline further as federal stimulus money peters out.

None of the candidates for the Republican presidential nomination has expressed interest in the issue. As governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney vetoed a bill that would have required the state to develop prekindergarten education programs for every child 2 to 4.

While many Democrats staunchly defend the principle of early childhood education, their willingness to fight for it has been dissipated by deficit anxieties.

Maybe information about the payoff on investments in early childhood education just hasn’t sunk in. Maybe appreciation of the benefits requires a longer time horizon than most politicians or business leaders can reach for.

Or perhaps those in the best position to pay the costs are not interested in the benefits. Broader global horizons make businesses less dependent on the labor force in the United States than they have been in the past. A growing number of businesses have the potential to take their operations elsewhere to find the skilled labor they need at the price they want to pay.

Businesses that rely on American workers are not facing labor shortages. They see a large reserve army of the unemployed, especially among workers in their 20s.

So why should businesses invest in early childhood education when there are more direct ways to reduce public spending related to crime, child welfare and education? Budget cuts across the board can shift costs back to low-income families and communities in the form of reduced opportunities and lower living standards.

In economic terminology, incentives are misaligned.

While the social rate of return on public investments in children is high for taxpayers, businesses may not be able to capture a significant share of that return. They may be tempted by more profitable investments — contributions to candidates and elected officials whose top priority is to lower the cost of doing business.

On the other hand, many business owners are citizens and taxpayers who care about the well-being of the next generation. Those are the ones who will buy in to early childhood education. They had better do it soon.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=fffd42d9f9e5599fd20ce49d61ec9ab4