April 20, 2024

Service Industry Expanded in April, but at Slower Pace

WASHINGTON (AP) — A survey of United States service companies showed that the industry expanded at a slower pace in April than in March, as companies reported less business activity and could not raise their prices.

The Institute for Supply Management said on Friday that its index of nonmanufacturing activity fell to 53.1 in April from 54.4 in March. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. The report measures growth in industries that cover 90 percent of the work force, including retail, construction, health care and financial services.

The decline in the overall index suggested that some service companies may be starting to see less consumer demand, in part because of higher Social Security taxes.

April’s weakness was largely caused by a steep drop in a measure of prices, to 51.2 from 55.9 in March. Nearly 70 percent of the companies surveyed said they did not change their prices last month, while 10 percent reduced them.

A measure of business activity also declined. Still, a gauge of new orders was mostly unchanged, and businesses stepped up restocking, typically a sign that they expect consumer spending to pick up.

Growth in the service industry depends largely on consumers, whose spending drives roughly 70 percent of economic activity. Americans increased their spending from January through March at the most rapid pace in more than two years, despite the increase in Social Security taxes that kicked in on Jan. 1.

And other trends may offset some of the impact of the taxes this year. Consumers have cut their debts. Rising home values and stock prices have increased household wealth And average gas prices nationwide have dropped 27 cents from their peak this year to $3.52 a gallon, according to AAA.

In manufacturing, orders fell 4 percent in March, the largest amount in seven months, but a crucial category that signals business investment plans increased. The drop in factory orders reflected a plunge in the volatile category of commercial aircraft, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. Orders were up 1.9 percent in February. But in core capital goods, a category considered a proxy for business investment plans, orders rose 0.9 percent after a 4.8 percent decline in February and a 6.7 percent surge in January.

Weaker economies overseas and the impact of across-the-board government spending cuts have made businesses more cautious, dampening demand for manufactured goods. But even with the March decline, total orders stood at $467.3 billion, 43 percent above the recession low in March 2009.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/04/business/economy/service-industry-expanded-in-april-but-at-slower-pace.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Factory Goods Orders Drop Steeply in March

WASHINGTON (AP) — Orders for long-lasting factory goods fell in March by the most in seven months. The drop reflected a steep decline in commercial aircraft demand and little growth in orders that signal future business investment.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that orders for durable goods declined 5.7 percent in March. That followed a 4.3 percent gain in February, which was revised lower.

Weaker economies overseas and the impact of across-the-board government spending cuts have made businesses more cautious, reducing demand for manufactured goods. Spending on military equipment also fell sharply last month.

Durable goods are items expected to last at least three years. Orders for durable goods tend to fluctuate sharply from month to month, and economists cautioned against reading too much into one monthly decline.

A measure of business investment plans, which include industrial machinery and computers, ticked up 0.2 percent last month. Economists pay close attention to so-called core capital goods orders because they strip out more volatile defense and aircraft orders.

Increases last month in both orders and shipments of core capital goods suggest businesses increased spending on equipment and software in the January-March quarter. That probably contributed to economic growth in the first quarter.

Still, most of the quarterly gain reflected a huge increase in January. Orders fell sharply in February and rose only slightly last month. That indicates businesses may spend less on equipment in the April-June quarter, economists said.

“This doesn’t look like we’re entering some kind of downward spiral,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse. “This seems like a downshift from stronger growth.”

The overall decline in durable goods was exacerbated by a 48.2 percent fall in commercial aircraft orders. Boeing reported that it received orders for only 39 aircraft, compared with 179 in the previous month.

Orders for military aircraft and other military goods also dropped. That most likely reflects the impact of automatic government spending cuts that began on March 1. Joseph LaVorgna, an economist at Deutsche Bank, noted that orders for defense equipment had fallen to their lowest level in over seven years.

Excluding aircraft and transportation demand, orders for durable goods dropped 1.4 percent, the second straight decline.

Demand fell in most types of goods. Orders dropped for metals like steel and aluminum, metal parts, electrical equipment and appliances and defense aircraft. Orders increased for computers and communications equipment.

Many economies overseas were also sluggish, reducing exports. China’s manufacturers grew at a slower pace in March, according to a survey released on Monday, as export orders and employment declined. Europe’s economy has been in recession.

Economists on average are projecting that the American economy grew at a healthy annual rate of about 3 percent in the first quarter, up from only a 0.4 percent rate in the fourth quarter of last year. The Commerce Department will release its first estimate for January-March growth on Friday.

But many economists say they expect growth has begun to slow to a rate of 2 percent or less in the current April-June quarter.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/business/economy/factory-orders-dropped-steeply-in-march.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economic Scene: In a Shovel, a Cure for Our Stunted Economic Growth

At the end of last year, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the economy was still about 5.5 percent smaller than it would have been had it avoided the recession and kept growing along its long-term potential path, making full use of the workers and equipment currently sitting idle. A rebound is hardly around the corner. Growth this year will average only 1.4 percent, according to the budget office’s latest forecast. By the time we recover to our potential — which the C.B.O. expects will take until 2017 — the Great Recession set off by the implosion of the housing bubble more than five years ago will have cost us nearly half of one year’s entire economic production: about $7.5 trillion.

We will be paying the price for years. The slump is hindering capital investment, stunting the careers of college graduates and encouraging workers to drop out of the labor force, potentially blighting the economy over the long term. The C.B.O. expects unemployment to remain above 7.5 percent through next year.

And low growth is crimping government finances — reducing tax revenue while, at the same time, increasing the cost of programs like unemployment insurance. Last year, the budget office calculated that sluggish growth alone was responsible for more than a quarter of the budget deficit over the last four years.

And yet the government is doing little to turn things around. The collapse of public spending, mainly by state and local governments, explains most of the subpar growth since 2009, according to the C.B.O., more than sluggish consumer spending or business investment. In the final three months of last year, the economy may have even shrunk a bit, dragged down by declining military spending.

Now, the government is expected to deliver another wallop to the struggling economy. This year, the budget office expects that budget tightening — including the so-called sequestration, the battery of spending cuts set to take effect on March 1 unless the White House and the Republicans agree on an alternative plan to cut the budget — will cut economic growth in half.

Our protracted stagnation calls into question the priorities of our elected officials, who are consumed in a debate over how to cut spending even as the economy drifts. “We should be thinking about all the tools of economic policy to get the economy to escape velocity,” said Lawrence Summers, President Obama’s former top economic adviser.

This is bringing us back to the questions that were hotly debated over the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus package of 2009. What power does the government have to pull the economy out of its rut? How much do tax cuts or spending programs stimulate growth? Even if Mr. Summers’s priorities were shared across the political spectrum, there is little consensus on what kind of tools should be used.

Jared Bernstein, the former chief economic adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden who is now at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, argues that while fiscal consolidation would have been necessary at some point, the government slammed the brakes on spending before families were ready to spend again, while they were still working to reduce large debt burdens.

“The stimulus didn’t last long enough,” Mr. Bernstein said. “We pivoted to deficit reduction too soon.”

Not everybody agrees. Conservative economists, and most Republicans in the House, make the exact opposite argument: that spending cuts stimulate growth by giving businesses confidence that the government will be able to pay its debts.

While few economists share this view, many are indeed skeptical of deploying more government spending now to pull the economy out of the hole. When the Obama administration unveiled its first fiscal stimulus package, in the early weeks of 2009, the federal government’s debt to the public amounted to only 35 percent of our gross domestic product. Today, it amounts to about 75 percent. That kind of debt scares people.

E-mail: eporter@nytimes.com; Twitter: @portereduardo

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/13/business/in-a-shovel-a-cure-for-stunted-economic-growth.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economic View: Four Keys to a Better Tax System — Economic View

There is. Economists who study public finance have long agreed with William E. Simon, the former Treasury secretary, who said that “the nation should have a tax system that looks like someone designed it on purpose.” Here are four principles of tax reform that most of those economists would endorse:

BROADEN THE BASE AND LOWER RATES The United States tax code is filled with deductions and exclusions that shrink the basis of taxation. The smaller base in turn requires higher tax rates to raise the revenue needed to fund government. The starting point of reform is to reverse this process.

This principle was endorsed both by President George W. Bush’s tax reform commission in 2005 and by President Obama’s deficit reduction commission in 2010. Neither report had much impact, because eliminating deductions and exclusions is politically treacherous. Yet each made a good case on the merits.

Consider the deduction for mortgage interest. The policy is politically popular, but economists have long thought it has little justification. Because of this provision, among others, our tax system gives a better treatment to residential capital than it does to corporate capital. As a result, too much of the nation’s saving ends up in the form of housing rather than in business investment, where it could have increased productivity and wages.

This efficiency cost might be worth bearing if the deduction had a benefit from the standpoint of equality, but it fails there as well. Subsidies to homeowners are, in effect, penalties on renters — after all, someone has to pick up the tab. But there is nothing wrong with renting. And once one acknowledges that renters are poorer, on average, than homeowners, the mortgage interest deduction becomes even harder to justify.

TAX CONSUMPTION RATHER THAN INCOME Almost four centuries ago, the philosopher Thomas Hobbes suggested that taxes should be based on consumption, not income. Income measures a person’s contribution of labor and capital to society’s production of goods and services. Consumption measures the quantity of those goods and services he gets to enjoy. Hobbes reasoned that because consumption better reflects the benefits a person receives as a member of society, it is the proper basis of taxation.

Much modern economic theory confirms that conclusion. In standard models, a consumption tax allows the economy to achieve the best allocation of resources over time, whereas an income tax needlessly discourages saving, investment and economic growth.

Moving to a consumption tax might seem to require wholesale reform of our current system. But such a politically difficult step isn’t necessary. In fact, as our tax system has evolved over many years, legislators have come to appreciate the logic of taxing consumption, if only implicitly.

The United States now has an income tax, or at least that is what it is called. But because many Americans do most of their saving through tax-preferred accounts, such as I.R.A.’s and 401(k) plans, they in effect pay taxes based on how much they consume. Tax reform could expand and simplify the availability of such tax-preferred savings accounts. In this way, our progressive income tax could further evolve toward a progressive consumption tax.

TAX BADS RATHER THAN GOODS A good rule of thumb is that when you tax something, you get less of it. That means that taxes on hard work, saving and entrepreneurial risk-taking impede these fundamental drivers of economic growth. The alternative is to tax those things we would like to get less of.

Consider the tax on gasoline. Driving your car is associated with various adverse side effects, which economists call externalities. These include traffic congestion, accidents, local pollution and global climate change. If the tax on gasoline were higher, people would alter their behavior to drive less. They would be more likely to take public transportation, use car pools or live closer to work. The incentives they face when deciding how much to drive would more closely match the true social costs and benefits.

Economists who have added up all the externalities associated with driving conclude that a tax exceeding $2 a gallon makes sense. That would provide substantial revenue that could be used to reduce other taxes. By taxing bad things more, we could tax good things less.

KEEP IT SIMPLE, STUPID This engineering aphorism is based on the timeless insight that complex systems are more likely to break down, often in ways the designer failed to anticipate. It applies with force to tax systems.

Indeed, unlike engineering systems, complex tax systems go awry because an army of highly paid accountants and tax lawyers is ready to take advantage of any loophole it can find. Remember when President Obama’s stimulus plan offered tax credits for electric cars? Suddenly, the sale of golf carts took off.

To be sure, any tax system will be subject to gaming, which is why we will always need the Internal Revenue Service. But the more we use narrowly targeted taxes and tax breaks, the more gaming there will be.

Filling out tax returns will never be a delight. But if reform included simplification, the task might become a bit less onerous. And if a few accountants and tax lawyers were induced to become engineers and doctors instead, society will have moved a big step in the right direction.

N. Gregory Mankiw is a professor of economics at Harvard. He is advising Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, in the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=a60619b8e1fb3eccc792f0a0cb9c2439

Demand for Factory Goods Rises

Bookings for factory goods rose 1.8 percent after a revised 0.2 percent drop the previous month, data from the Commerce Department showed Wednesday. Demand for aircraft, autos and metals compensated for a drop in computers and electronics.

Slowing demand for capital goods like computers is a sign that business investment will cool this year, reflecting concern over a slowdown in global growth and a less advantageous government tax credit.

“Manufacturing is holding up fairly well,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pa. “Business investment has been very strong during this recovery, so some softening isn’t surprising.”

Economists forecast factory orders would rise 2 percent, according to the median of 57 projections in a Bloomberg News survey.

Orders for durable goods, or those meant to last at least three years, increased 3.7 percent. Demand for capital goods excluding aircraft and military equipment, a measure of future business investment, fell 1.2 percent.

Bookings for commercial aircraft, a volatile category, jumped 74 percent after dropping 14 percent. Orders for computers and electronic products fell 4.3 percent.

Bookings for nondurable goods, including petroleum and chemicals, rose 0.3 percent, the report from the Commerce Department showed.

Inventories climbed 0.5 percent in November, indicating factories were ramping up production to restock warehouses.

Manufacturing in the United States grew in December at the fastest pace in six months, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index showed Tuesday.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=cb4e1c482fffc0478c5201cf88535507