April 19, 2024

Shares Rise Despite Expectations of Only Modest Earnings Growth

The stock market rose on Monday as investors looked toward an earnings season expected to show modest growth despite concerns about the health of the economy.

The major market indexes fluctuated between positive and negative territory for much of the day before climbing in the final hour of trading, ending near session highs. Volume was light, and the Dow Jones industrial average’s gains were limited by a decline in shares of Johnson Johnson.

Forecasts for first-quarter earnings have been scaled back in 2013, with profits now seen rising just 1.6 percent from the quarter a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data. In January, earnings for the quarter were expected to rise 4.3 percent.

The drop in expectations has come as economic figures suggest the recovery could be less robust than some had thought. Weak corporate results could give investors more reasons to sell, pushing both the Dow and the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index back from recent nominal closing highs.

“We’re waiting for earnings for evidence that the market can be supported at these levels,” said Jim Dunigan, chief investment officer at PNC Wealth Management. “We will see growth in earnings, but clearing the expectations bar could be difficult, which could give us reason to pause.”

The season unofficially started after the market closed with results from Alcoa, the aluminum company. It reported earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations, but revenue was down from the quarter a year ago. After initially rising in after-hours trading, Alcoa’s stock slid 13 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $8.26.

As the first Dow component to report, Alcoa is informally viewed as setting the initial tone for the season, though many more bellwether companies will not report results until next week.

The Dow industrials rose 48.23 points, or 0.33 percent, to close at 14,613.48. The S. P. 500-stock index gained 9.79 points, or 0.63 percent, to 1,563.07. The Nasdaq composite index advanced 18.39 points, or 0.57 percent, to 3,222.25.

Stocks have rallied strongly this year. Major indexes have hit milestone highs, helped by the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program. The S. P. 500 is up 9.6 percent for the year, while the Dow has gained 11.5 percent.

Despite that, major indexes posted their worst weekly loss for 2013 last week, with the payroll report fueling concerns about economic growth.

“A lot of the momentum we had in the first quarter was based on improving economic news, and the jobs report really took the wind out of our sails,” said Mr. Dunigan, who helps oversee $116 billion in assets. “We’re still trying to sift through what that means for our prospects .”

Among the most active stocks on Monday, Advanced Micro Devices jumped 30 cents, or 13 percent, to $2.59, making it the S. P. 500’s biggest percentage gainer, after a report that Microsoft would use A.M.D. chips in its new Xbox game console.

Monster Beverage rose $2.33, or 4.7 percent, to $52.01, helping to elevate the S. P. consumer staples sector index, which rose 1.1 percent.

On the downside, the health care company Johnson Johnson fell 93 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $81.11 after JPMorgan Chase downgraded its stock to neutral from overweight, saying it faced “a messy first quarter and a likely downward revision to 2013 guidance.”

Lufkin Industries, a maker of oil field pumps, jumped $24, or 37.6 percent, to $87.96 after General Electric said it would buy Lufkin for about $3.3 billion. G.E., a Dow component, rose 19 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $23.12.

In the bond market, interest rates moved higher. The price of the Treasury’s 10-year note fell 9/32, to 102 10/32, while its yield rose to 1.75 percent, from 1.71 percent late Friday.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/09/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Dow’s Premier Companies Have Not Recovered Evenly

The new peak came almost exactly four years after the Dow sank to a low of 6,547.05 in March 2009, during the depths of the financial crisis. But not every blue-chip stock has bounced back. In fact, 12 of the 30 stocks in the Dow are still down from their peaks, some of them spectacularly so.

That the Dow industrials could nonetheless advance to a record reflects how big gains in certain stocks, like I.B.M. and McDonald’s, have more than offset large losses for others, like Bank of America and Alcoa. While other trends have emerged within the broader stock market — consumer-related stocks have fared relatively well, for instance, while financials and telecoms have done more poorly — the divergence within the Dow points to a shift in financial power among the bluest of the blue chips.

“Yes, stocks individually trade kind of the same in the short term, but over longer periods of time, the truth will out,” said Nicholas Colas, the chief market strategist at the BNY ConvergEx Group.

No member of the Dow industrials has done better in the stock market since the last peak than Home Depot. Shares of the company are 108 percent higher than they were in October 2007, closing at $70.47 on Tuesday. The company’s market value has risen by $50 billion.

Home Depot has benefited from a nascent recovery in the housing market, but much of the increase has come since the company’s relatively new chief executive, Frank Blake, trimmed its expansion in China and instituted a new focus on customer relations.

Because of quirks in the way the Dow is calculated, it is I.B.M. that accounted for the biggest slice of the Dow’s gain — 12 percent of it to be specific, according to Howard Silverblatt, the senior index analyst at Standard Poor’s.

Even as other big technology stocks like Cisco have struggled, I.B.M. has gained 75 percent since the 2007 high to close at $206.53 on Tuesday. The run for I.B.M. reflects the decision of Samuel J. Palmisano, the chief executive until 2012, to slowly shift the company’s focus to software from personal computers, which have been unattractive as tablet computers have taken off.

On the other end of the Dow is Alcoa. The aluminum producer has struggled as expectations for growth in the developing world have dimmed, stifling demand for the commodities. Its stock is still down 79 percent from the last market peak.

Bank of America fared only slightly better because of the legacy of the financial crisis and housing collapse. Even after it was bailed out by Washington, the bank has been hampered by subprime loans made before the crisis, as well as bad acquisitions, like the purchase of the subprime mortgage lender Countrywide in 2008. Bank of America is today worth half what it was five years ago. Its share price has fallen 78 percent since the Dow reached its previous high, closing at $11.55 on Tuesday.

JPMorgan Chase, by contrast, made an early exit from the subprime mortgage market and consequently has emerged from the financial crisis stronger than many of its competitors, positioning itself as the nation’s largest and most powerful bank. Its shares are up 4 percent since October 2007.

The Dow’s winners and losers are a reminder of how the nation’s uneven economic recovery is playing out in the business world, and suggest the caution of investors even as the market has rallied.

“Investors wanted stability,” said Tobias M. Levkovich, chief United States equity strategist at Citigroup.

The search for safe stocks has led investors to companies that do well even in a tough economy, like Johnson Johnson and Procter Gamble. When it appeared that the European debt crisis might drag the world into a double-dip recession, there was an assumption that consumers would still buy shampoo and toothpaste.

Even as the economic recovery has taken root, it has not helped lift the incomes of ordinary Americans. This has been a boon for companies that market lower-cost goods, like McDonald’s and Wal-Mart. Both stocks are trading more than 60 percent higher than in 2007.

Consumer stocks are also being helped by the heftier stock portfolios of wealthier Americans, who do a disproportionate amount of the buying.

“This is not an income story, this is a wealth story,” said Eric Green, an economist at TD Securities.

It is household wealth that the Federal Reserve has hoped to buttress with its ongoing program of bond buying. By purchasing safe bonds, the Fed has tried to push investors into riskier investment and in turn make those investments more valuable.

Now that the recovery is luring in more investors, strategists see signs of a greater willingness to take on risks within stock portfolios. Since the beginning of the year, the gains in the market have been more evenly distributed than they were over the last five years, with financial firms rising almost as much as consumer staples.

“As the recovery proceeds, the performance will be more broad-based,” said Michael Gapen, the chief United States economist at Barclays.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/06/business/economy/dows-premier-companies-have-not-recovered-evenly.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Stocks and Bonds: Wall Street Stocks Higher on Fresh Labor Data

A drop in oil prices and strong bond auctions in Europe drove stocks to a slightly higher close Thursday. The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index rose for the fourth straight day.

Materials and industrial companies led the gains. Caterpillar and Alcoa rose the most in the Dow. Stocks drove higher in the last hour and a half of trading after oil prices dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time this year. Oil fell on rumors that Europe would delay an embargo on Iranian oil. Crude oil futures for March delivery settled down $1.78 to $99.31 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Also pushing stocks were strong bond auctions in Italy and Spain. European markets ended mostly higher after Italy and Spain held highly successful bond auctions, easing worries about Europe’s debt crisis. Italy’s benchmark stock index rose 2.1 percent.

In Italy’s first bond auction of the new year, the country was able to sell one-year bonds at a rate of just 2.735 percent, less than half the 5.95 percent rate it had to pay last month. That’s a signal that investors are becoming more confident in Italy’s ability to pay its debts.

Spain was able to raise double the amount of money it had sought to raise in its own bond sale as demand for its debt was strong. Both auctions were seen as important tests of investor sentiment.

Investors have been worried that Italy and Spain, the third- and fourth-largest countries in the euro area, might be dragged into the region’s debt crisis. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have been forced to get relief from their lenders after their borrowing costs spiked to levels the countries could no longer afford.

The euro rose nearly a penny against the dollar, to $1.28, as worries eased about Europe’s financial woes. The currency, which is shared by 17 European Union countries, fell to a 16-month low against the dollar the day before. An auction of 30-year United States Treasury bonds drew meager interest from investors as cash flowed back into European debt.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 21.57 points, or 0.2 percent, to end at 12,471.02. It was down most of the day, losing 64 points in the first hour of trading, following a rise in unemployment claims and a weak report on December retail sales.

The S. P. 500 finished up 3.02 points, or 0.2 percent, at 1,295.50. The Nasdaq composite rose 13.94 points, 0.5 percent, to 2,724.70.

The Treasury’s 10-year note fell 6/32, to 100 21/32. The yield rose to 1.93 percent, from 1.91 percent late Wednesday.

It was the latest day of quiet trading in the stock market. There have been six consecutive days with moves of less than 1 percent in the S. P. 500.

Ralph Fogel, investment strategist and partner at Fogel Neale Partners in New York, said the moderate moves were an encouraging sign after the steep rises and sudden declines that were typical of last summer. “This is a much healthier market than we’ve seen,” he said.

Unemployment benefits spiked last week to the highest level in six weeks, mostly because companies let go of thousands of holiday hires, the government reported. Retail sales barely rose in December and were lower than analysts were expecting.

Despite the mixed news on the economy, investors are starting to focus on the corporate earnings season, which got under way this week after Alcoa, the aluminum maker, predicted stronger demand for its products and surprised the market with higher revenue than analysts expected.

“There’s a fair amount of pessimism out there but I also think that investors are slowly becoming immune to the bad news,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. “As long as the stuff you can sink your teeth into, like corporate profit, is improving, I think it bodes well for the markets this year.”

Chevron fell 2.6 percent after the world’s second-largest publicly traded oil company said its income would be “significantly” below its fourth-quarter results in the prior quarter because of narrower margins on refining and selling fuels.

The business software company CA Inc. jumped 4.2 percent after the hedge fund Taconic Capital disclosed in a regulatory filing that it has taken a 5.1 percent stake. It also said it was pressing CA to return more cash to shareholders and increase its profit margins.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=49bb7457dbc8766751aa39dfb678b621

Stocks & Bonds: A Mixed Finish After a Downgrade of Portugal’s Debt

The credit ratings agency cited concern that Portugal would not be able to meet goals for reducing its deficit because of the “formidable challenges” the country is facing in cutting spending.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 12.90, or 0.1 percent, to close at 12,569.87. The Dow had risen as many as 19 points in morning trading after the Commerce Department reported an increase in orders for manufactured goods.

The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index fell 1.79, or 0.1 percent, to 1,337.88. The Nasdaq composite index rose 9.74, or 0.3 percent, to 2,825.77.

Bond prices rose, sending yields lower, as investors sought the relative safety of Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year note rose 17/32, to 100 2/32, and the yield fell to 3.12 percent from 3.18 percent late Friday.

Investors have been worried that Europe’s debt problems could slow the global economy and cause a crisis for European banks. “The European debt crisis is going to be with us for a while,” said David Kelly, chief market strategist at J. P. Morgan Funds. “There still is a very big issue out there.”

Tuesday’s trading volume was light with many traders on vacation after the United States markets were closed Monday for the Fourth of July holiday. Many investors are looking ahead to next week, when the aluminum maker Alcoa becomes the first major United States company to report results for the most recent quarter.

Last week, the Dow rose 648 points, its best week in two years, after Nike reported strong earnings and Greece cleared its final hurdle to receive another round of loans. Automakers also reported that their sales rose 7 percent in June compared with the comparable month a year ago.

Those gains erased nearly six weeks of losses. Stocks had been falling since late April because of concerns about the debt crisis in Europe, weak home sales in the United States and slow manufacturing. By mid-June, stocks had given up most of their gains for the year.

With last week’s rally, the Dow is down 1.8 percent from April 29, when it reached a three-year high. The Dow is up 8.6 percent for the year. The S. P. 500 is up 6.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite is up 6.5 percent.

“There hasn’t yet really been a reason to get concerned about corporate America,” said Randall Warren, chief investment officer of Warren Financial Service. “It’s the rest of the America that’s struggling.”

Even though companies have been reporting higher profits, unemployment has remained stubbornly high since the recession officially ended in June 2009. The Labor Department will report the latest figures on unemployment and payrolls on Friday, and analysts expect to hear more bad news. Many predict that the unemployment rate will remain at 9.1 percent, unchanged from May. They also expect that employers added only 90,000 jobs last month, below the 100,000 threshold that economists say is needed to prevent the unemployment rate from increasing.

Several stocks rose sharply on deals and other news. Immucor, a maker of blood-testing equipment, rose more than 30 percent after it agreed to be bought by a private investment firm, TPG Capital, in a deal worth $1.97 billion.

Southern Union, which operates oil pipelines, rose 4.2 percent after Energy Transfer Equity said it would pay $5.1 billion for the company. The deal trumped a $4.9 billion bid made in late June by a rival, the Williams Companies.

Netflix rose 8.1 percent, more than any company in the S. P. 500, after announcing that it would expand its online video streaming service to 43 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Chevron rose 1 percent, more than any stock in the Dow index, after the price of crude oil rose $1.95, to $96.89 a barrel.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=2fc0e271086526b653c75d6027b9453c