Janet L. Yellen, Possible Fed Successor, Has Admirers and Foes

But Janet L. Yellen, then a relatively new and little-known Fed governor, talked Mr. Greenspan to a standstill that day, arguing that a little inflation was a good thing. She marshaled academic research that showed it would reduce the depth and frequency of recessions, articulating a view that has prevailed at the Fed. And as the Fed’s vice chairwoman since 2010, Ms. Yellen has played a leading role in cementing the central bank’s commitment to keep prices rising about 2 percent each year.

Ms. Yellen is now widely viewed as a logical candidate to succeed the current Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, when his term ends in January 2014. She has worked closely with him in shaping and building support for the Fed’s campaign to stimulate the economy and bring down unemployment.

But some of Ms. Yellen’s critics remain wary. They worry that she would not be sufficiently concerned about the possibility that inflation will accelerate as the economic recovery gains strength. If nominated, she could face opposition from Senate Republicans who have repeatedly expressed concern that the Fed’s campaign would destabilize financial markets and make controlling the pace of inflation more difficult.

“I think people read Janet Yellen’s speeches as saying that she puts a higher weight on joblessness compared to inflation” than the typical member of the Fed’s policy-making committee, said Vincent Reinhart, formerly the head of the Fed’s monetary policy staff and now the chief United States economist at Morgan Stanley. “And that includes Ben Bernanke.”

He added, however, that her nomination would be unlikely to shake financial markets because she already exercises considerable influence, so any shift in policy would most likely be modest.

Moreover, Ms. Yellen’s personal qualities, highlighted by the 1996 episode, have helped her win supporters even among her ideological opponents.

“She makes an argument on the merits and she sticks with it,” said Alan Blinder, an economics professor at Princeton nominated to the Fed alongside Ms. Yellen in 1994. “And she’s good at articulating an argument in a way that doesn’t leave people on the other side hopping mad at her.”

Despite their disagreement at the time, Mr. Greenspan said that he continued to hold Ms. Yellen in high regard. “I did listen to her more carefully because she articulates her position in a way that you can follow it analytically,” he said in an interview. “Intuitions are useless. Janet’s conversation and her presentations were factually based, and that always got my attention.”

If confirmed, Ms. Yellen would become the first woman to lead a major central bank. She is 66, seven years older than Mr. Bernanke. She would be 71 by the end of a four-year term as chairwoman. But she remains in good health, and friends say that, like other prominent women of her generation, she regards herself as being in the prime of a late-blooming career. Nor would she be the oldest person to lead the Fed. Mr. Greenspan began his fifth and final term in 2004 at 78.

Ms. Yellen, slight, white-haired and described by one colleague as a “small lady with a large I.Q.,” does not loom like Paul Volcker nor cut like Mr. Greenspan. Her personal style more closely resembles Mr. Bernanke’s soft-spoken manner. The force of her arguments can catch people by surprise.

Kevin Hassett, a staff economist at the Fed when Ms. Yellen arrived in 1994, recalled that she started to eat lunch regularly in the staff cafeteria to subvert the hierarchical system that limited communication between Fed governors and the vast army of research economists. Other governors had tried to change the rules but Ms. Yellen, he said, found a way around them.

“It showed a kind of grace and wisdom that is very unusual in Washington,” said Mr. Hassett, now a fellow at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/business/janet-l-yellen-possible-fed-successor-has-admirers-and-foes.html?partner=rss&emc=rss