Fed Poised to Cut Rates for First Time Since Financial Crisis, Ending an Era

“The Fed acted too soon. I turned out to be right, they acted too soon and too violently,” Mr. Trump said on Friday at the White House.

But the Fed, which operates independently of the White House, is likely to make a move driven by precaution, not politics, as it tries to inoculate the economy against the harmful effects of slowing global growth and Mr. Trump’s trade war.

While the United States economy continues to chug along, cracks are beginning to show. Manufacturing gauges, which often lead the rest of the economy, are slumping across the world. Business investment and confidence have suffered under Mr. Trump’s trade spats and tariffs. A potent recession indicator is flashing red — rates on 10-year bonds have been lower than those on 3-month government securities, a sign that investors are pessimistic about the future.

[The signs professional forecasters use to predict recessions.]

The effect of Mr. Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut is waning and businesses report that they are holding off on expanding, in part because of concern about global economic growth and a protracted trade dispute between the United States and China. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, according to data released on Friday. That is a decent pace, but it shows the economy is reverting to normal after a 3.1 percent growth rate in the first quarter.

Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has been signaling a possible rate cut, telling lawmakers this month that “the uncertainties around global growth and trade continue to weigh on the outlook” and that the Fed would act as needed to sustain the economic expansion.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/fed-rate-cut.html?emc=rss&partner=rss