Energy Demand Is Expected to Rise 53% by 2035

China and India will consume 31 percent of the world’s energy by 2035, up from 21 percent in 2008, the department’s International Energy Outlook projected. In 2035, Chinese energy demand will exceed that of the United States by 68 percent, it said.

“Economic growth continues to look good in emerging nations,” Howard K. Gruenspecht, acting administrator of the Energy Information Administration, said on Monday at a briefing in Washington.

Renewable sources will be the fastest-increasing energy category in the next 25 years, said the report, which was prepared by the information agency. Renewable energy demand will climb 2.8 percent a year over the period and will make up 15 percent of the total in 2035, up from 10 percent in 2008.

Crude oil prices will rise to $125 a barrel in 2035 in 2009 dollars, the agency estimated. In May 2010, when it last released an energy outlook, the department projected that oil would climb to $133 a barrel by 2035. Demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels will increase by 26.9 million barrels a day between 2008 and 2035, the new outlook said.

Global consumption of natural gas is forecast to rise 52 percent, to 169 trillion cubic feet, from 2008 to 2035. The growth in natural-gas demand will outpace demand growth for other fossil fuels.

Total energy demand will increase an average 1.6 percent from 2008 to 2035. Strong economic growth in developing countries will drive the gain, the outlook shows.

Energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide will rise 43 percent, to 43.2 billion metric tons, from 2008 to 2035, the report said. Much of the increase will occur in developing countries, it said.

The outlook “may overstate nuclear power’s future role” because it does not account for the reaction to the March disaster in Japan caused by an earthquake and a tsunami that caused meltdowns and radiation leaks at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, Mr. Gruenspecht said.

The report projected that nuclear power would almost double, to 4.9 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2035, from 2.6 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2008.

After the disaster in Japan, Germany said it would close its nuclear plants by 2022, and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission said it would consider new regulations for the 104 American commercial reactors.

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