Economix Blog: Whose Jobs Are at Risk in Free Trade

With Congress expected on Wednesday to take up trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama as well as a benefits package for workers who lose their jobs to foreign competition, the Joint Economic Committee of Congress has released a report showing that the workers most likely to be hurt by free trade are the same groups that will have the most difficult time getting new jobs.

According to the report, “Nowhere to Go: Geographic and Occupational Immobility and Free Trade,” the workers most likely to lose their jobs as a result of increased trade are older workers and those without a college education. The most obviously affected industry has traditionally been manufacturing, where workers tend not to have college degrees and an increasing number are 45 or older.

Particularly in this dismal economy, finding new jobs is a challenge for these workers. According to Labor Department data, the unemployment rate among those with just high school diplomas is 9.7 percent, more than double the rate among those with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

And while the unemployment rate among those 45 to 54 years old is actually lower than the rate for 25- to 34-year-olds, once they are unemployed, older workers tend to spend much longer searching for work.

The Joint Economic Committee report reviews data showing that the occupations that are expected to grow the most in the future are also those with a high share of workers who hold bachelor’s degrees. According to Labor Department data cited in the report, about a quarter of the job growth between 2008 and 2018 will come in professional occupations, where about 65 percent of current workers hold a four-year degree.

At the same time, the five slowest growing occupations, including production, maintenance and repair and farming, fishing and forestry, are those that do not tend to require college degrees.

Because trade can displace entire industries in a specific region, it helps if a displaced worker can move. But the report shows that older people are much less likely to move than younger workers, making it harder for older laid-off workers to find new jobs.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e07d4e05a23d0ba4f34e5819d899d0ff